日本國債危機：過度負債與買盤消失下的連鎖經濟衝擊

2025-06-11

日本作為全球債務最嚴重的國家之一，目前國債規模已高達1,300萬億日圓（約合8.6兆美元），相當於其國內生產總值（GDP）的260%，遠遠超過希臘與義大利等曾經陷入歐債危機的國家。然而，比起數字本身，更令人憂心的是日本國債的持有結構正快速改變。原本由日本央行與本國銀行主導的穩定買盤逐漸退出，而海外投資者則長期對日債缺乏興趣，導致整體需求持續萎縮。在「債務過高」與「無人承接」的雙重壓力下，日本面臨的不僅是財政壓力，更可能是一場影響深遠的金融風暴。

目前，日本國債主要可分為三種類型，分別是用以填補財政赤字的普通國債（JGBs）、用於基建與社會項目的財政投融資債（FILP）、以及由地方政府發行以支應地方財政的地方債。在過去幾十年中，日本的國債基本由國內機構消化，形成「自產自銷」的內循環結構。日本銀行透過量化寬鬆政策購買大量國債，其持有比例一度高達五成以上。同時，國內銀行與保險機構為了避險，也長期配置國債作為低風險資產。此外，郵政儲蓄與年金基金（如GPIF）憑藉龐大資金規模，也成為穩定買盤的一環。

然而，這一模式如今正逐步崩解。日本央行因應長期寬鬆導致的日圓貶值與通貨膨脹，不得不調整政策，減少對國債的購買力道。銀行方面，由於長期負利率造成國債收益率為負，紛紛轉向海外資產以追求更佳報酬。至於海外投資者，在日圓疲軟與日本經濟成長乏力的背景下，對日債興趣降至歷史低點，佔整體持有比例不到一成。

在這種供需失衡的環境下，國債需求下滑恐帶來一連串連鎖效應。首先是政府的籌資成本將大幅上升。若要吸引投資人，日本政府勢必要提高國債利率，例如從0.1%拉升至2%，屆時每年的利息支出將可能從目前的10萬億日圓暴增至30萬億日圓，進一步壓縮原本用於教育、醫療等公共項目的預算。同時，若國際信評機構如標普與穆迪調降日本主權信評，將使其借貸成本雪上加霜。

日圓的信心也可能因此動搖，若市場完全失去買盤，日本央行可能只能透過印鈔來接盤，形成惡性循環。屆時匯率恐將跌至1美元兌200日圓以上，物價全面上漲，尤其是在能源與食品大量依賴進口的背景下，將再度陷入2022年「物價漲、薪資不動」的惡性民生壓力。

更嚴重的是，日本的年金體系將面臨崩潰風險。作為全世界最大規模的退休基金之一，GPIF的資產組合中約有五成是日本國債，若國債價格因利率上升而大幅下跌，帳面損失可能達數百萬億日圓，嚴重威脅退休者的保障。同時，年輕一代可能被迫承擔更多稅負來填補缺口，導致世代衝突與社會不穩。

銀行系統的風險也不容小覷。日本銀行手中持有大量國債，一旦資產價值下滑，資本充足率恐跌破監管標準，誘發信任危機與擠兌潮。而作為全球資本市場中重要避險資產的日本國債，若失去穩定性，將導致全球資金轉向美元與黃金，進一步加劇國際市場的波動性。面對這一系列潛在風暴，日本的應對手段多以短期穩定為主。例如日本央行雖表面宣布退出寬鬆，但實際上可能透過非公開市場操作繼續「隱性接盤」。政府方面也可能透過提高消費稅至15%，或削減社福開支以收縮財政赤字。然而這些手段多數屬於延遲危機本質的對策，恐難從根本扭轉局勢。

Japan's Sovereign Debt Crisis: The Chain Reaction of Overleveraging and Vanishing Buyers

As one of the most heavily indebted nations in the world, Japan’s national debt has soared to a staggering ¥1,300 trillion (approximately $8.6 trillion USD)—amounting to 260% of its GDP, far surpassing debt levels seen in countries like Greece and Italy during the Eurozone crisis. However, beyond the raw numbers, a far more concerning trend is emerging: the structure of Japan’s debt ownership is undergoing a dramatic shift. The once-stable domestic demand led by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and local banks is fading, while foreign investors have historically shown little interest in Japanese bonds. The combination of excessive debt and a shrinking investor base is pushing Japan toward not only fiscal strain but also the brink of a potentially far-reaching financial storm.

Structure of Japan's National Debt

Japan’s national debt is broadly categorized into three types:

1. General Government Bonds (JGBs): Issued to cover fiscal deficits

2. Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) Bonds: Used for infrastructure and social projects

3. Local Government Bonds: Issued by regional governments to support local finances

For decades, these debts were largely absorbed by domestic institutions, forming a closed-loop “self-financing” system. The BOJ purchased massive amounts of bonds through quantitative easing (QE), at one point holding over 50% of total outstanding JGBs. Meanwhile, local banks and insurers treated government bonds as safe, low-yield assets. Postal savings and public pension funds—especially the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF)—also acted as major, stable buyers due to their enormous asset bases.

The Breakdown of the Domestic Absorption Model

This long-standing model is now unraveling. Facing the yen’s prolonged depreciation and rising inflation, the BOJ has begun scaling back its bond purchases to recalibrate monetary policy. Domestic banks, having endured years of negative yields, are shifting toward overseas assets in search of higher returns. Foreign investors, meanwhile, remain largely uninterested in Japanese bonds, deterred by a weak yen and sluggish economic growth, with their share of bond holdings falling below 10%.

Chain Reactions and Economic Fallout

This imbalance between supply and demand poses severe risks:

• Rising Borrowing Costs: To attract buyers, Japan may be forced to raise bond yields, for example from 0.1% to 2%. This would triple annual interest payments from ¥10 trillion to ¥30 trillion, squeezing public spending on essentials like healthcare and education.

• Credit Downgrades: Should rating agencies like S&P or Moody’s downgrade Japan’s sovereign credit rating, borrowing costs could spike further.

• Currency Crisis: If investor confidence collapses entirely, the BOJ may be compelled to print money to absorb excess debt, sparking a vicious cycle of inflation. The yen could plunge past 200 per USD, driving up import costs—particularly devastating in a country reliant on foreign energy and food—reviving the 2022 nightmare of soaring prices with stagnant wages.

Pension System at Risk

A deeper crisis looms over Japan’s pension system. The GPIF, one of the world’s largest retirement funds, holds about 50% of its assets in JGBs. Should bond prices plummet due to rising interest rates, paper losses could reach hundreds of trillions of yen, threatening the security of retirees. This would also likely lead to heavier tax burdens on younger generations, fueling intergenerational conflict and social instability.

Banking System Vulnerabilities

The Japanese banking sector is also exposed. The BOJ itself holds a massive volume of JGBs, and a sharp decline in their value could undermine its capital adequacy, possibly triggering a crisis of confidence or even bank runs. Moreover, JGBs are considered one of the global financial system’s key safe-haven assets. If they lose credibility, global capital may flee to U.S. dollars or gold, intensifying volatility across international markets.

Government Response: Temporary Measures, Long-Term Uncertainty

Japan’s current policy responses appear focused on short-term stability. While the BOJ publicly signals an end to QE, it may be silently intervening through off-market operations. On the fiscal side, the government may resort to raising the consumption tax to 15% or cutting social welfare to narrow the fiscal gap. However, such measures largely postpone the inevitable, without addressing the core structural issues.

In conclusion, Japan’s sovereign debt crisis is not merely a matter of ballooning numbers—it is a structural unraveling of a fragile financial ecosystem. As domestic demand collapses and external support remains elusive, Japan must face the consequences of decades of overreliance on debt and short-term fixes. Without bold reforms and a long-term strategy, the current trajectory could lead to fiscal paralysis, social unrest, and global financial contagion.

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