歐盟第十六輪對俄制裁的多重衝擊：從航空業孤立到地緣政治重組

歐盟針對俄羅斯實施的第十六輪制裁，進一步升級航空限制，禁止任何曾降落於俄羅斯的飛機進入歐盟領空與機場。此舉不僅深化了俄羅斯航空業的孤立狀態，更在全球範圍內引發連鎖反應，其影響層面從航空產業、全球經濟結構、地緣政治格局以至一般民眾的日常生活均無一倖免。

首先，對俄航空業而言，這項新禁令將直接削弱其國際航空網絡的連接能力。儘管歐盟早在2022年第五輪制裁中已封鎖俄籍飛機進入其領空，但此輪制裁更進一步擴大範圍，阻斷第三國航班（如中國、印度、土耳其）若曾經在俄羅斯起降，也不得進入歐盟。這不僅迫使許多航空公司在路線規劃上面臨兩難選擇，也讓俄羅斯的國際航線幾乎只能依靠如伊朗、塞爾維亞等少數未參與制裁的國家維持最低限度的航班運作。

在航線選擇受限之下，全球航空業亦受到波及。往返歐亞的航班被迫繞飛俄羅斯領空，飛行時間顯著延長，以芬蘭航空為例，其亞洲航線成本增加達 15% 至 40%。根據國際航空運輸協會（IATA）估算，2023年因繞飛所增加的成本高達 25 億美元，而這一數字在新一輪制裁實施後勢必進一步攀升。

全球航空網絡也因此進一步朝“陣營化”方向發展。對親俄立場較明顯的國家（如中國、土耳其）來說，是否繼續經營俄羅斯航線將成為一項政治與經濟之間的抉擇。以土耳其航空為例，2023年其來自俄羅斯航線的營收佔總營收的 12%，若受制裁影響而不得不放棄俄線，將面臨重大營運調整。同時，中立轉機樞紐如杜拜與伊斯坦堡，因能夠避開歐俄政治對抗，可能迎來轉機客流的大幅增長，進一步削弱傳統歐洲樞紐如巴黎與法蘭克福的競爭力。

對俄羅斯本土經濟與社會來說，此輪制裁所造成的衝擊同樣顯著。空運限制將進一步擾亂其高端製造業的供應鏈，尤其是在半導體、醫療設備等領域。根據數據，2023年俄羅斯空運進口已大幅下滑 72%，而此次制裁預計將進一步壓縮其餘留的物資通道。此外，對俄民眾而言，國際旅行成本的上升與航班選擇的減少將使中產階級的出境需求受限。根據統計，2023年俄羅斯出境旅遊人次已下降 65%，未來數據或將繼續探底。

在地緣政治層面，俄方可能採取報復措施，如進一步封鎖西伯利亞航線，迫使歐美航空公司繞道亞洲，加劇全球航空業營運壓力。同時，俄羅斯亦可能向中國、印度等友好國家的航空公司施壓，鼓勵其無視歐盟禁令，例如透過降低機場費用等方式吸引航班合作。此外，歐盟內部對制裁的共識也並非鐵板一塊，如匈牙利與希臘等國因依賴俄國觀光收入，可能對新制裁措施存有保留。這也引發關於制裁有效性的討論，而非西方陣營則可能將此視為“西方單邊主義”的又一例證，進一步加速全球“去美元化”潮流，如中俄雙邊貿易中已有 80% 採用本幣結算。

從長遠角度觀察，此輪制裁亦有可能催化全球航空產業的結構性重組。歐洲主要航空公司如漢莎與法航或將減少亞洲航線投資，轉而加強對北美與非洲市場的佈局。另一方面，俄羅斯航空公司則可能被迫轉向國產飛機如SSJ-100，惟其產能與技術尚不足以填補波音與空中巴士斷供留下的空缺。此外，俄羅斯亦可能透過灰色市場擴充“影子機隊”，2023年已有超過 115 架飛機透過非正式渠道引入，但此舉在適航安全與保險層面將持續存在風險。

整體而言，此輪制裁將加深全球航空網絡的分裂，推高運輸與物流成本，並進一步削弱全球化下的自由流通機制。俄羅斯的經濟壓力將進一步加劇，然而歐盟亦需為自身航空業競爭力下降付出代價。未來中東海灣國家與中國航空公司或將成為地緣重組中的最大受益者，標誌著全球航空格局可能進入一個多極分化的新時代。

EU’s 16th Sanctions on Russia: Multi-layered Impact from Aviation Isolation to Geopolitical Realignment

The European Union’s 16th round of sanctions against Russia marks a significant escalation in aviation restrictions. Under this new measure, any aircraft that has landed in Russia is now prohibited from entering EU airspace or airports. This move not only deepens the isolation of Russia’s aviation industry but also triggers a cascade of global consequences, affecting the airline sector, economic structures, geopolitical balances, and even the daily lives of ordinary citizens.

For Russia’s aviation industry, the new ban severely limits its international flight connectivity. While EU airspace has been closed to Russian-registered aircraft since the 5th sanctions package in 2022, the latest measures extend the scope by targeting third-country flights (such as from China, India, or Turkey) that have operated in Russian airspace. These airlines will no longer be allowed to land in the EU if they continue to serve Russian routes. This forces many carriers into a difficult decision and leaves Russia’s international flight operations largely reliant on a few non-sanctioning countries such as Iran and Serbia.

As route options shrink, the global airline industry is also being reshaped. Flights between Europe and Asia now must detour around Russian airspace, significantly increasing flight times. For instance, Finnair has reported that its Asian routes face a 15% to 40% increase in travel time. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), detours around Russia cost the industry an additional $2.5 billion in 2023 alone—an amount expected to grow under the latest sanctions.

This trend is accelerating the fragmentation of the global aviation network along geopolitical lines. Countries with close ties to Russia—such as China and Turkey—now face a dilemma: continue operating Russian routes and lose access to the EU market, or comply with EU sanctions and forgo profitable Russian business. Turkish Airlines, for example, derived 12% of its total 2023 revenue from Russian routes. If forced to abandon these, it may have to significantly revise its strategy. Meanwhile, neutral transit hubs such as Dubai and Istanbul may experience a surge in transfer traffic, further eroding the competitive edge of traditional European hubs like Paris and Frankfurt.

Inside Russia, the effects of these sanctions are just as significant. The supply chain bottlenecks in high-tech manufacturing sectors—such as semiconductors and medical equipment—will worsen, as these industries rely heavily on air cargo. Russia’s air freight imports dropped by 72% in 2023, and remaining logistical channels may be further constricted under the new sanctions. For Russian citizens, international travel will become even more restricted and expensive. Middle-class travelers now must rely on indirect routes through hubs like Dubai or Istanbul. The number of outbound Russian tourists fell by 65% in 2023, a trend that will likely continue downward.

On the geopolitical front, Russia may respond with countermeasures. It could expand its ban on Western carriers using Siberian airspace—a move already applied to U.S. and Canadian airlines—exacerbating operational costs across the global airline sector. Moscow may also pressure friendly carriers from countries like China and India to ignore EU sanctions, possibly offering incentives such as reduced airport fees.

Meanwhile, the effectiveness of these sanctions could become a point of contention within the EU itself. Member states like Hungary and Greece, which benefit from Russian tourism, may resist full enforcement, weakening the unity and impact of the policy. Non-Western countries might also view these sanctions as an example of “Western unilateralism,” accelerating their push for de-dollarization. Notably, 80% of bilateral trade between Russia and China is already settled in local currencies.

In the long term, the sanctions are likely to drive structural changes in the global aviation industry. Major European carriers such as Lufthansa and Air France may reduce their presence on Asian routes and instead focus on markets in North America and Africa. Russian airlines like Aeroflot will be forced to rely on domestically produced aircraft such as the SSJ-100, though these cannot quickly replace the gap left by Boeing and Airbus due to production and technological limitations. There is also an increasing risk associated with Russia’s growing “shadow fleet”—aircraft acquired through unofficial or gray-market channels. In 2023 alone, Russia added over 115 planes this way, but concerns remain about airworthiness and insurance coverage.

In conclusion, the EU’s latest sanctions will further entrench the global split in aviation networks, increase logistics costs, and erode the efficiencies of global transportation. While Russia’s economy will bear a heavier burden, the EU must also contend with a decline in aviation competitiveness. In the emerging multipolar aviation landscape, Middle Eastern hubs and Chinese carriers may ultimately become the biggest winners.