飛天茅臺價格“雪崩”：從“液體黃金”到市場拋售潮

曾經一瓶難求的飛天茅臺，如今正經歷一場前所未有的價格風暴。2025年6月，飛天茅臺散瓶批發價跌破2000元(人民幣)，部分電商平臺甚至出現1800元/瓶的超低價，而原箱批發價也跌至1960元/瓶，較年初的高點大幅下滑。回收商哀歎“昨天收的今天賠”，甚至有經銷商表示“快虧掉一台賓士”。這場價格狂跌的背後，是多重因素的疊加影響，而茅臺股價也隨之震盪，市值蒸發數千億。

1. 飛天茅臺價格為何狂跌？

(1) 消費淡季+電商低價衝擊: 每年春節後，白酒市場進入傳統淡季，但今年的跌勢尤為猛烈。疊加“6·18”電商大促，美團、拼多多等平臺以1499元官方指導價甚至更低的價格放量銷售，嚴重衝擊傳統管道價格16。例如，拼多多部分店鋪售價1826元/瓶，美團則推出“1499元搶購”活動，吸引數十萬人預約。

(2) 社會庫存積壓，黃牛拋售潮: 茅臺過去幾年被瘋狂炒作，大量酒被囤積而非飲用。據估算，社會流通庫存已達1.2億瓶，加上基酒庫存可勾兌5.6億瓶，相當於每個中國家庭能分到近2瓶。如今價格下跌，黃牛和經銷商爭相拋售，形成“越跌越賣”的惡性循環。

(3) 消費群體變化，年輕人不買單: 新生代消費者對高度白酒興趣降低，茅臺的核心客群仍是38歲以上的中產，但這一群體的消費能力受經濟環境影響有所收縮13。此外，政務消費占比已降至3.74%，商務宴請需求也在減少。

(4) 茅臺自身策略調整: 茅臺近年推動直銷改革，削弱傳統經銷商體系，導致部分經銷商失去囤貨動力。同時，茅臺嘗試提高開瓶率，例如在餐飲店推出1499元平價茅臺，要求空瓶回收，以減少炒作。

2. 茅臺價格與股價的歷史高點 vs. 當前低谷

(1) 短期仍承壓，但或已接近底部: 經銷商庫存仍需時間消化，電商低價放量仍在繼續。茅臺官方已開始控貨穩價，部分經銷商聯誼會限制向電商供貨。

(2) 長期看消費場景轉型: 茅臺正從“金融產品”回歸“飲用酒”本質，例如推廣宴席用酒、小容量包裝等。若能提高開瓶率，減少炒作，價格或趨於穩定。

(3) 股價取決於批發價能否企穩: 茅臺股價與批發價高度相關，若酒價繼續下跌，股價可能進一步承壓。但若消費回暖、庫存出清，茅臺仍可能重回增長軌道。

茅臺仍是高端白酒的標杆，但過去依賴炒作、囤貨的增長模式已難以為繼。此次價格下跌，既是市場泡沫的出清，也是茅臺轉型的契機。未來，它能否適應新的消費環境，將決定其能否重回巔峰。

"Feitian Moutai Price Crash: From 'Liquid Gold' to Market Sell-Off Frenzy"

Once a highly coveted item, Feitian Moutai is now experiencing an unprecedented price collapse. As of June 2025, the wholesale price of individual bottles has fallen below 2,000 RMB, with some e-commerce platforms listing them for as low as 1,800 RMB per bottle. The price of full cases has also dropped to 1,960 RMB per bottle—significantly lower than the highs seen earlier this year. Resellers are lamenting that they are “losing money overnight,” and one distributor even joked they’re “about to lose a Mercedes.” Behind this dramatic plunge lies a convergence of multiple factors, causing the stock price of Moutai to tumble and wiping out hundreds of billions in market capitalization.

1. Why Is Feitian Moutai Crashing?

(1) Off-season and e-commerce price war
Following the Chinese New Year, the liquor market typically enters a seasonal lull. However, this year’s decline has been particularly sharp. Combined with aggressive “6.18” mid-year promotions, platforms like Meituan and Pinduoduo have been selling Moutai at or even below the official suggested retail price of 1,499 RMB, heavily undercutting traditional channels. For instance, some stores on Pinduoduo offered bottles for 1,826 RMB, while Meituan ran a "1,499 RMB flash sale" that attracted hundreds of thousands of users.

(2) Massive inventory and reseller sell-offs
Moutai has been heavily speculated in recent years, with many buying to hoard rather than consume. It’s estimated that there are currently 120 million bottles in social circulation. Combined with base liquor reserves, the supply could potentially be blended into 560 million bottles—nearly two bottles per Chinese household. As prices fall, speculators and distributors are rushing to sell, triggering a vicious cycle of “the lower it drops, the more they sell.”

(3) Changing consumer demographics
Younger generations are less interested in strong baijiu. Moutai's core consumer base—mainly middle-aged professionals over 38—is seeing reduced purchasing power amid economic uncertainty. Additionally, government-related consumption has dropped to just 3.74%, and demand for business banquets is also on the decline.

(4) Moutai’s internal strategy shifts
In recent years, Moutai has pushed direct sales reforms, weakening the traditional distributor network and dampening hoarding incentives. The brand has also worked to boost actual consumption rates, such as launching 1,499 RMB "fair-price Moutai" at restaurants, with empty bottles collected for verification, aiming to curb speculation.

2. Moutai Price and Stock: From Peak to Plunge

3. Can Moutai Stabilize? What's Next?

(1) Short-term pressure remains, but bottom may be near
Distributor inventories still need time to clear, and discounting by e-commerce platforms continues. Moutai has begun to restrict supply and stabilize pricing, with some distributor alliances limiting sales to online channels.

(2) Long-term: a shift in consumption scenarios
Moutai is seeking to reposition itself from a “financial product” back to a drinkable spirit. Initiatives include promoting banquet-use bottles and smaller package sizes. If it can raise actual consumption rates and reduce speculation, prices may stabilize.

(3) Stock performance tied to wholesale price stability
Moutai’s share price closely tracks its wholesale liquor prices. If prices continue to drop, the stock could face more pressure. However, a recovery in consumer demand and inventory clearance may help the company return to a growth path.

Moutai remains the benchmark for premium baijiu, but the old growth model—driven by speculation and hoarding—is becoming unsustainable. This price crash may represent both a bursting of the bubble and a pivotal moment for transformation. Whether Moutai can adapt to a new consumer landscape will determine if it can climb back to the top.