Labubu價格崩盤、股東大舉套現，潮玩界的投機熱潮是否正在走向終結？

近期，泡泡瑪特（Pop Mart）旗下的明星級潮玩IP——Labubu，正面臨一場前所未有的價格雪崩。原本在二手市場被炒至每隻2800元人民幣的Labubu，如今價格驟跌至650元左右。與此同時，泡泡瑪特的高層與大股東也密集減持股份，套現總額超過60億港元，這一連串動作引發外界對潮玩市場是否即將泡沫破裂的激烈討論。

Labubu價格暴跌的導火線，是泡泡瑪特在6月18日突然開放大規模補貨預售。官方通路開放原價（每隻99元）購買，預約排期最長到9月22日。這一舉措讓許多原本要靠加價數倍從黃牛手上購入的玩家終於可以“平價入手”。然而，對黃牛而言，這無疑是一場災難。整盒六個盲盒的回收價從1500至2800元暴跌至650至800元，跌幅超過50%；其中熱門隱藏款“本我”從高點4607元跌至2851元，許多黃牛一日之內損失數萬元人民幣，交易群內一片哀號。有賣家掛出1200元的商品卻無人問津，更有人主動降價至700元回收，市場陷入恐慌性拋售。

泡泡瑪特此番操作的官方說法是為了“打擊黃牛囤貨與炒價行為”，並“讓真正喜歡Labubu的消費者能買到”。此前，黃牛大量利用搶單軟體囤貨，使普通玩家難以入手，造成Labubu價格飆升，品牌形象也因此受損。這次補貨雖緩解玩家的不滿，卻也意外引爆價格崩潰。

更令人擔憂的是，Labubu價格暴跌的同時，泡泡瑪特的高層與股東也出現密集套現行為。創辦人王寧夫婦累計減持持股套現33億港元，董事屠錚更是清空持股套現約60億港元，早期投資機構蜂巧資本亦於5月拋售近1200萬股，套現22.64億港元。資金大量撤離的背景下，泡泡瑪特股價在6月19日單日下跌逾6%，市值蒸發223億港元。

市場開始質疑泡泡瑪特的高估值是否仍具合理性。曾幾何時，泡泡瑪特的市盈率高達100倍，遠超同業平均約20倍的水平；如今在主力IP Labubu面臨降溫的情況下，估值是否存在巨大泡沫，成為各界焦點。

針對Labubu泡沫是否即將破裂，市場出現兩種截然不同的聲音。樂觀派認為，Labubu依然是全球最具熱度的潮玩IP之一，且在韓國、美國等海外市場表現強勁。泡泡瑪特2024年海外收入增長達475%，未來仍有可能透過開發新IP維持成長動能。

然而，悲觀者指出，泡泡瑪特對Labubu的依賴過重——此IP貢獻了超過六成營收，一旦熱度下滑，將重創整體業績。過去已有類似情況，如曾經紅極一時的Molly系列，就在高峰後暴跌47%。此外，盲盒機制本身因隱藏款中獎率過低（僅0.69%）被指涉嫌利用“賭博心理”，未來恐面臨更嚴格的監管壓力。隨著二手市場崩盤，消費者信心亦可能動搖，進一步影響整個潮玩產業的熱度與吸引力。

這場由Labubu價格崩潰引發的連鎖反應，象徵著潮玩熱潮可能走向尾聲。泡泡瑪特雖仍具IP運營實力，但過度依賴“飢餓行銷”與黃牛炒作的商業模式正在遭遇極限挑戰。若無法成功孵化下一個Labubu，股價與市場信心都將面臨更大壓力。

對普通玩家而言，價格下跌或許意味著終於能用合理價格購得心儀角色；但對投資者與從業者來說，潮玩市場過熱與泡沫風險的訊號已愈加明顯。這場由Labubu領銜的潮玩盛宴，究竟還能持續多久？答案，也許正藏在下一輪價格波動與新IP能否成功接棒的變數之中。

Labubu’s Price Crash and Shareholder Sell-Off: Is the Designer Toy Hype Coming to an End?

Recently, Pop Mart’s flagship collectible toy IP, Labubu, has suffered an unprecedented price crash. Once sold for as much as RMB 2,800 on the secondary market, individual figures are now trading for as low as RMB 650. At the same time, the company’s executives and major shareholders have offloaded more than HKD 6 billion worth of shares, sparking widespread speculation that the designer toy bubble may be on the verge of bursting.

The immediate trigger for Labubu’s price collapse was Pop Mart’s sudden large-scale restock announcement on June 18. For the first time, customers could pre-order Labubu figures directly through official channels at the original retail price of RMB 99, with deliveries scheduled as far out as September 22. This move allowed regular buyers to finally purchase the toys without paying inflated prices to scalpers—but it also sent the scalper market into free fall.

Complete boxes of six blind boxes, which once fetched RMB 1,500 to 2,800, plummeted to RMB 650–800—a drop of more than 50%. The rare “Id” variant fell from a high of RMB 4,607 to RMB 2,851, with some scalpers reportedly losing tens of thousands of RMB in a single day. On reselling platforms, listings priced at RMB 1,200 went unanswered, while others desperately offered to buy at just RMB 700. Panic selling overtook the market.

Pop Mart explained the restock as an effort to combat scalping and inflated pricing, aiming to “ensure real fans of Labubu can actually purchase it.” In the past, scalpers had used bots to hoard inventory, pushing prices up and frustrating regular consumers—ultimately damaging the brand’s image. While the restock did ease consumer frustration, it inadvertently triggered a market-wide crash.

More concerning, however, is the massive sell-off by Pop Mart insiders coinciding with Labubu’s price drop. Founder Wang Ning and his wife have offloaded shares worth over HKD 3.3 billion, while board member Tu Zheng completely exited his holdings for an estimated HKD 6 billion. Early investor Fengqiao Capital also dumped 11.91 million shares in May, cashing out HKD 2.264 billion. As a result, Pop Mart’s stock price fell more than 6% in a single day on June 19, wiping HKD 22.3 billion from its market cap.

These developments have prompted serious questions about whether Pop Mart’s valuation is sustainable. At its peak, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeded 100x, far above the industry average of around 20x. Now, with Labubu losing momentum, the risk of an overinflated valuation looms large.

The debate around whether the Labubu bubble is bursting has produced two sharply divided viewpoints. Optimists argue that Labubu remains one of the most popular designer toy IPs globally, with strong demand in overseas markets such as South Korea and the United States. Pop Mart’s overseas revenue grew by 475% in 2024, and the company could potentially maintain growth by developing new IPs.

Pessimists, however, warn that Pop Mart is overly dependent on Labubu, which accounts for more than 60% of its revenue. If the character’s popularity fades, it could have devastating effects on overall performance. This is not without precedent—another once-iconic IP, Molly, saw sales collapse by 47% after its peak. Additionally, the blind box model itself has drawn criticism for exploiting “gambling psychology,” with ultra-rare chase variants having drop rates as low as 0.69%, increasing the risk of regulatory scrutiny. With the secondary market now in turmoil, consumer confidence may falter, further dragging down the broader appeal of the collectible toy sector.

This chain reaction triggered by Labubu’s market collapse could be a signal that the designer toy hype is nearing its end. While Pop Mart still possesses strong IP management capabilities, its reliance on artificial scarcity and scalper-driven hype appears to be reaching its limit. If it fails to create the next Labubu-like phenomenon, both its share price and investor confidence could face steeper declines.

For ordinary collectors, the price drop might come as welcome news—it finally allows them to purchase their favorite characters at a reasonable cost. But for investors and industry insiders, the warning signs of an overheated market and a potential bubble are becoming increasingly hard to ignore. Whether the Labubu-led designer toy frenzy will continue depends on future price trends—and whether Pop Mart can successfully launch a new generation of hit IPs.