自2025年以來，印度正面臨前所未有的資本外流危機，外資已撤出超過170億美元。與此形成鮮明對比的是，2025年迄今，印度吸引的外國直接投資僅有3.5億美元。這一數據表明，印度並非像過去所宣稱的那樣「賺錢給印度花」，而是出現大規模資本逃離現象——少量資金進入，巨額資金撤出，對印度經濟的打擊可謂極其沉重。

對比之下，2024年印度吸引的外資仍達100億美元，而2025年截至目前僅剩3.5億美元，資金流入同比下跌96%。這種下滑不是普通的減少，而是如同懸崖自由落體般的急劇下降，顯示全球資本對印度市場的信心正在迅速崩塌。外資撤離的同時，本土企業也開始逃離，截至目前已有290億美元的印度企業資金外流，形成所謂的「雙向抽血」，印度經濟的資金血管正遭受嚴重掏空。

面對這種局面，印度政府反應迅速，上週緊急推出11項改革措施，包括取消外資持股限制、放寬貸款條件等，試圖挽回資本信心。然而，改革效果不佳，宣布後僅三天，外資又流失12億美元。造成這種資本逃離的根本原因，可以概括為三個方面。

首先是政策不穩定與法律風險。印度的政策與法律環境極不透明，企業難以預測未來的合規標準。例如，三星被追繳6億美元稅款，幾乎吞噬全年利潤；沃達豐則因法律變更被罰款16億美元；另一家公司則有48億美元資產被凍結。印度的法律條款隨時可能變更，企業今天合法，明天可能就違法，完全由政府說了算，極大地增加經營風險。

其次是基建與營運成本問題。印度基礎設施落後，電力供應不足、道路不通暢，物流成本比中國高出36%，工廠停電成為常態。港口效率低下，例如孟買港的集裝箱周轉率僅為深圳港的四分之一。此外，印度供應鏈不完善，零部件缺乏，企業不得不依賴中國進口。工作效率低下、時間觀念缺乏、部分崗位世襲等現象，也使企業在當地營運難度極大。

第三是外企培養人才後被取代。印度在吸引外企技術轉移的同時，卻扶持本土企業。例如，某國際電氣公司為印度建設高壓生產線，培養數百名工程師，卻被迫低價出售90%股權，核心技術無償轉讓給本土企業，形成了典型的「教會徒弟，饿死師傅」現象。

綜合來看，2025年的印度正面臨資金大量外流、政策與法律風險高企、基建與營運成本高昂以及外企利益受損等多重挑戰。即便政府推出改革措施，短期內難以扭轉資本逃離的趨勢，印度經濟信心正面臨嚴峻考驗。

Since 2025, India’s stock market has been experiencing an unprecedented capital outflow, with foreign investors withdrawing over $17 billion. In stark contrast, foreign direct investment into India during the same period has amounted to only $35 million. This indicates that India’s much-touted narrative of “earning money for India” is facing a harsh reality: minimal capital inflows accompanied by massive outflows, dealing a severe blow to the country’s financial system.

To put this in perspective, in 2024, India attracted $10 billion in foreign investment. In 2025, however, that figure has dropped to just $35 million—a 96% decline compared to the previous year. This is not a minor reduction; it is a freefall comparable to falling off a cliff, reflecting the rapid erosion of global investor confidence in the Indian market. Meanwhile, domestic Indian companies are also fleeing, with $29 billion in corporate capital leaving the country this year, creating a so-called “double hemorrhage” and draining the lifeblood of India’s economy.

In response to this crisis, the Indian government quickly announced 11 reform measures, including lifting foreign ownership limits and loosening loan conditions, aiming to restore investor confidence. However, these measures have proven largely ineffective; within just three days of the announcement, foreign investors withdrew another $1.2 billion. The root causes of this capital flight can be summarized in three main areas.

First, there is policy instability and legal risk. India’s regulatory and legal environment is highly unpredictable, making it extremely difficult for companies to anticipate compliance requirements. For example, Samsung was hit with a $600 million tax bill, almost wiping out its annual profits; Vodafone was fined $1.6 billion due to retroactive law changes; and another company had $4.8 billion in assets frozen. In India, today’s legal operations can become tomorrow’s violation at the government’s discretion, creating enormous business uncertainty.

Second, infrastructure and operational costs remain major obstacles. India’s infrastructure is underdeveloped, with unreliable electricity, poor roads, and logistics costs 36% higher than in China. Factory power outages are routine, and port efficiency is extremely low—for instance, container turnover at Mumbai Port is only a quarter of that at Shenzhen Port. The supply chain is incomplete, forcing companies to rely heavily on Chinese imports. Workforce inefficiencies, poor time discipline, and even hereditary job practices further complicate operations for businesses.

Third, there is the issue of technology transfer to domestic competitors. Foreign companies that help India develop technical expertise often find themselves undercut by government-supported local firms. For example, an international electrical company built high-voltage production lines and trained hundreds of engineers, only to be forced to sell 90% of its equity at a discount, with its core technology effectively handed over to local competitors—an example of “teaching the apprentice while starving the master.”

In summary, India in 2025 faces a severe combination of massive capital flight, high policy and legal risk, inadequate infrastructure and high operational costs, and challenges for foreign investors in protecting their interests. Even with government reforms, the trend of investor withdrawal is unlikely to reverse in the short term, leaving India’s economic confidence under significant strain.