中國電動車產業的潛在危機：從恆大化隱憂到市場結構性風險

長城汽車董事長魏建軍近期公開示警，直言中國新能源汽車產業可能步上恆大後塵，更暗指龍頭比亞迪存在「暴雷」風險。這番言論揭開中國電動車市場繁榮表象下的深層隱憂——過度投資、惡性價格戰與政策紅利退潮，正將這個全球最大的新能源車市場推向臨界點。

產能過剩與殭屍車廠的陰影

中國新能源車產能已達驚人的每年4,000萬輛，是2023年實際銷量（950萬輛）的4倍以上。這種嚴重供需失衡催生出大量「殭屍車企」——靠地方政府補貼與銀行輸血維持運作，卻無實際市場競爭力。例如眾泰汽車在破產重整後仍獲江西政府注資復活，而威馬汽車在燒光350億元融資後停產，卻因牽涉數十家國有供應商而遲遲無法進入破產程序。這種「大而不能倒」的僵局，與當年恆大依靠政商關係持續擴張的模式高度相似。

比亞迪的危險賭注：市佔率與現金流的背離

比亞迪作為行業龍頭，2023年以302萬輛銷量奪得全球新能源車冠軍，但其財務結構已顯露隱患。為搶佔市場，比亞迪將主力車型價格下探至10萬元以下，導致單車淨利潤僅8,000元人民幣（約特斯拉的1/5）。更值得警惕的是，其應收帳款在過去兩年激增217%，達1,200億元，顯示經銷商庫存壓力加劇。業內人士透露，部分比亞迪經銷商為完成銷售目標，採取「左手倒右手」的虛假登記，這種渠道灌水手法與恆大地產的「自買自賣」財報美化如出一轍。

價格戰的血腥循環：全行業毛利率跌破生死線

2024年開年以來，由比亞迪掀起的降價潮已蔓延至90%車企。特斯拉Model Y在中國售價較美國低31%，蔚來ES6降價23%，就連豪華品牌寶馬i3也跟進砍價18%。這場割喉競爭的結果是：中國電動車行業平均毛利率從2022年的18%暴跌至2024年Q1的5.2%，低於傳統燃油車水平。小鵬汽車財務長更坦言：「每賣一輛車平均虧損4萬元，但停產虧更多。」這種「賣愈多虧愈多」的困境，正在加速二線品牌如高合、天際汽車的資金鏈斷裂。

政策退潮後的裸泳者：補貼依賴症爆發

中國政府原定2023年底完全退出的新能源車補貼，實際上仍透過「免徵購置稅」、「牌照優惠」等隱性方式延續。但隨著地方財政惡化，這些支持正快速縮水。上海市已宣布2024年取消插電混動車免費牌照，而中央財政對充電樁建設的補貼也削減40%。這對高度依賴補貼的車企造成雙重打擊：一方面失去直接資金輸血，另一方面消費者因優惠減少而延後購車。業內估算，若補貼完全退出，約30%的新能源車型將因價格劣勢遭市場淘汰。

國際市場的封鎖：歐美築起貿易壁壘

中國電動車出口量在2023年暴增67%，但這條出路正被快速堵死。歐盟已通過對中國電動車加徵最高48%關稅，美國更將禁令範圍擴大到採用中國電池的第三方國家車型。比亞迪原本計劃在墨西哥設廠曲線進入美國市場，但最新《通膨削減法案》細則直接封殺此類「繞道」行為。失去海外市場緩衝後，中國電動車產能過剩問題將在國內加速引爆。

金融系統的連鎖反應：車企債務黑洞浮現

據中國銀保監會數據，汽車製造業不良貸款率在2024年Q1升至3.8%，是工業平均值的2倍。更嚴重的是「汽車金融」潛在風險——為刺激銷量，車企普遍提供零首付、超長分期等激進信貸方案。這些貸款約30%實際由車企旗下融資公司自我消化，形成類似恆大「理財產品」的自融循環。當銷量增速放緩，這類表外負債可能引發系統性風險。

結語：一場不可避免的行業洗牌

中國電動車產業的危機本質是「政府主導型產能擴張」與「市場真實需求」的斷裂。短期內，我們將看到更多車企仿效恆大，透過「戰略性停產」或「債務重組」苟延殘喘；中長期而言，市場必然走向寡頭壟斷——可能僅剩比亞迪、吉利等3-5家企業存活。這場調整的代價將極為慘烈，但也是中國汽車業從政策泡沫邁向市場健康的必經之痛。魏建軍的警示並非危言聳聽，而是對全行業敲響的一記警鐘。

The Looming Crisis in China’s Electric Vehicle Industry: From Evergrande-like Risks to Structural Market Threats

Great Wall Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun recently issued a public warning, bluntly stating that China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry could follow in the footsteps of Evergrande, even implying that leading player BYD may face a potential meltdown. His remarks have pulled back the curtain on the deep concerns hidden behind the boom of China’s EV market—overinvestment, vicious price wars, and the fading of policy dividends are pushing the world’s largest NEV market to a critical tipping point.

Overcapacity and the Shadow of Zombie Carmakers

China’s NEV production capacity has reached a staggering 40 million vehicles annually, more than four times the actual 2023 sales volume of 9.5 million. This severe supply-demand imbalance has created a wave of “zombie car companies”—firms that survive only through local government subsidies and bank bailouts but lack real market competitiveness. For example, Zotye Auto was revived by Jiangxi government funding after bankruptcy restructuring, and WM Motor, after burning through RMB 35 billion in financing, ceased production but couldn’t declare bankruptcy due to entanglements with dozens of state-owned suppliers. This “too-big-to-fail” stalemate eerily mirrors Evergrande’s expansion through political and financial ties.

BYD’s Risky Gamble: Market Share at the Expense of Cash Flow

As the industry leader, BYD topped global NEV sales in 2023 with 3.02 million vehicles, but its financial structure shows growing cracks. To seize market share, BYD priced many of its core models below RMB 100,000, pushing net profit per vehicle to just RMB 8,000—only a fifth of Tesla’s. More alarmingly, BYD’s accounts receivable surged 217% in two years to RMB 120 billion, indicating rising inventory pressure on dealers. Industry insiders revealed that some BYD dealerships are engaging in fake registrations to meet sales targets, a practice that closely resembles Evergrande’s tactic of “self-buying” to inflate revenue figures.

The Bloody Price War: Industry-Wide Profit Margins Collapse

Since early 2024, the price war sparked by BYD has spread to over 90% of EV manufacturers. Tesla’s Model Y is now 31% cheaper in China than in the U.S.; NIO's ES6 dropped 23%, and even premium brands like BMW slashed the i3’s price by 18%. The result of this cutthroat competition is a nosedive in profitability: the average gross margin for China’s EV industry plummeted from 18% in 2022 to just 5.2% in Q1 2024, lower than that of traditional gasoline cars. XPeng’s CFO admitted, “We lose RMB 40,000 per car on average, but shutting down production would cost even more.” This “the more you sell, the more you lose” dilemma is pushing second-tier brands like HiPhi and Enovate Motors into financial collapse.

After the Policy Tide Recedes: Subsidy Dependency Unmasked

Although China officially ended NEV purchase subsidies in late 2023, the government continued to provide support through tax exemptions and license plate incentives. But as local finances deteriorate, these policies are being rapidly scaled back. Shanghai, for instance, announced it will cancel free license plates for plug-in hybrids in 2024, and central subsidies for charging infrastructure were cut by 40%. For companies heavily reliant on subsidies, this is a double blow: they lose direct financial lifelines, and consumer demand drops as incentives vanish. Industry estimates suggest that if all subsidies are removed, about 30% of NEV models would be priced out of the market.

International Markets Closing Doors: Western Trade Barriers Rise

China’s EV exports soared 67% in 2023, but this escape route is quickly being blocked. The EU has approved tariffs of up to 48% on Chinese EVs, and the U.S. has expanded bans to include foreign-made vehicles that use Chinese batteries. BYD’s original plan to build a plant in Mexico to indirectly access the U.S. market has been effectively shut down by the Inflation Reduction Act, which prohibits such workarounds. Without international outlets, China’s domestic overcapacity crisis will only intensify.

Financial Contagion Risk: The Debt Hole Deepens

According to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the auto manufacturing sector rose to 3.8% in Q1 2024—double the industrial average. More worrisome is the hidden risk in automotive finance: to boost sales, many automakers offer zero down payments and ultra-long installments. Roughly 30% of these loans are absorbed by automakers’ own financing arms, forming a self-reinforcing debt cycle similar to Evergrande’s wealth management products. As sales growth slows, these off-balance-sheet liabilities could trigger systemic financial risks.

Conclusion: An Inevitable Industry Shakeout

At its core, the crisis in China’s EV industry stems from a disconnect between government-led capacity expansion and actual market demand. In the short term, we are likely to see more automakers emulate Evergrande—surviving via “strategic production halts” or debt restructuring. In the medium to long term, the market will inevitably consolidate, with only 3–5 players such as BYD and Geely likely to survive. The cost of this shakeout will be severe, but it is a necessary correction for China’s auto sector to transition from policy-fueled growth to market-driven sustainability. Wei Jianjun’s warning is not alarmist—it is a timely wake-up call for the entire industry.