2025年6月，以色列與伊朗之間爆發劇烈的軍事衝突，成為中東局勢近年來最嚴重的一次升級。從以色列主動發動代號「崛起雄獅」的突襲，到伊朗隔日展開的報復性導彈攻擊，雙方首次正面交火，衝突規模與精密度遠超過過去的代理人戰爭。以下為此次事件的全貌分析：

以色列於6月13日凌晨發動多波空襲，鎖定伊朗數個關鍵軍事與核設施，包括納坦茲（Natanz）、伊斯法罕（Isfahan）、德黑蘭的軍事指揮中心以及福爾道（Fordow）地下核設施。此次行動被命名為「崛起雄獅」，目的是徹底打擊伊朗的核發展潛力與軍事決策中樞。

在納坦茲核設施，以色列出動專門摧毀地下目標的鑽地彈，重創其核心離心機群。報告指出，超過八成設施被毀，並造成高濃縮鈾外洩風險，引發國際原子能機構（IAEA）對輻射污染的警告。伊斯法罕部分核建築亦遭波及，儘管伊朗官方聲稱損害有限，但衛星影像顯示大規模爆炸痕跡。

最具戰略意義的打擊發生於德黑蘭。透過精密情報與誘敵計畫，以色列成功在革命衛隊軍官會議期間發動空襲，使用JDAM精準導引炸彈摧毀地下30米的指揮中心，導致包括伊朗革命衛隊空軍司令哈吉-扎德（Amir Ali Hajizadeh）在內的20名高階軍官喪生，對伊朗軍事領導層造成嚴重打擊。

以色列採取多層戰術：先以電子戰癱瘓伊朗防空通訊，再由F-35戰機突破防線發動精準攻擊，同時配合網路攻擊癱瘓電力與通訊設施，徹底展現高科技戰爭手段。初步報導指出，伊朗方面至少有78人死亡、320人受傷，其中包括多位核科學家與軍事人員，對其核計劃構成實質性破壞。

伊朗的報復行動隨即而至。6月14日凌晨，德黑蘭展開代號「真實承諾3」的反擊，發射近百枚彈道飛彈與無人機，針對以色列的軍事基地與都市地區展開攻擊。特拉維夫多棟建築受創，造成至少2人死亡與40人受傷；耶路撒冷亦拉響防空警報。雖以色列宣稱「鐵穹」防空系統攔截率高達九成，仍有部分飛彈突破防線，對軍事與基礎設施造成損害。

以色列隨即宣布進入緊急狀態，民眾恐慌導致超市出現搶購潮。同時，美國亦提供部分飛彈攔截支援，顯示其對以色列的默契性協助。

此一衝突立即引發全球關注。聯合國秘書長古特雷斯緊急呼籲雙方「立即停火」，警告事態恐失控。美國則表示事前知情但未直接參與，同時警告伊朗不得攻擊美軍與盟軍目標。俄羅斯與中國則分別譴責以色列行動，呼籲尊重伊朗主權並尋求和平解決方案。

在經濟層面，衝突爆發後，布倫特原油價格迅速上漲13%，突破每桶75美元，反映市場對霍爾木茲海峽可能封鎖的憂慮。全球股市亦出現波動，避險資產與軍工股普遍上揚，顯示地緣風險的傳導效應。

展望未來，局勢充滿不確定性。伊朗可能進一步升級對以色列本土的攻擊，甚至考慮重新啟動核武計畫；而美國是否會進一步介入，例如打擊革命衛隊基地，也將成為觀察焦點。同時，真主黨與胡塞武裝等代理勢力的動向可能使區域戰爭全面升級。若霍爾木茲海峽遭封鎖，全球能源市場將面臨嚴重衝擊。

此次事件可謂以色列與伊朗多年對峙後首次全面軍事交鋒，顯示中東衝突已進入高危階段。國際社會能否透過外交與斡旋促成停火，將是遏止戰火擴散的關鍵。無論是對中東局勢的穩定、全球經濟的穩固，或能源供應的安全，此次衝突都將帶來深遠而複雜的影響。

Comprehensive Analysis of the Israel-Iran Military Conflict – June 2025

In June 2025, a full-scale military confrontation erupted between Israel and Iran, marking the most severe escalation in the Middle East in recent years. The conflict began with Israel's surprise strike under the codename Operation Rising Lion and was swiftly followed by Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks. This direct confrontation between the two nations exceeded the scale and precision of previous proxy engagements. The following is a detailed overview of the events.

On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched a series of coordinated airstrikes targeting several key Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Isfahan, Tehran's military command center, and the underground Fordow enrichment site. The operation aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear development potential and disrupt its military leadership structure.

At the Natanz nuclear facility, Israel deployed bunker-busting munitions that destroyed critical underground centrifuge infrastructure. Reports indicate that over 80% of the equipment was damaged, raising the risk of highly enriched uranium leakage. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) later warned of potential radioactive contamination. In Isfahan, while Iranian authorities claimed the impact was minor, satellite imagery showed clear signs of explosions and structural damage.

Perhaps the most strategically significant strike occurred in Tehran. Utilizing intelligence to lure high-ranking officials into a single location, Israel deployed JDAM precision-guided bombs to penetrate 30 meters underground, eliminating 20 senior commanders, including Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force.

Israel employed a multi-layered strategy: electronic warfare to disable Iranian air defense communications, cyberattacks to disrupt power and communication systems, and F-35 stealth fighters to bypass radar and deliver precision strikes. Preliminary reports stated that at least 78 people were killed, including civilians, with 320 more injured. Among the casualties were several top nuclear scientists and IRGC leaders, delivering a major blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Iran’s retaliation was swift. In the early hours of June 14, it launched Operation True Promise 3, firing nearly a hundred ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli military sites and urban centers. Tel Aviv was hit by multiple missiles, causing at least two fatalities and 40 injuries. Air raid sirens were triggered in Jerusalem, where some projectiles were intercepted. Although Israel claimed a 90% interception rate via its Iron Dome system, several missiles broke through and caused notable material damage.

In response, Israel declared a state of emergency. Panic-buying swept across supermarkets, and the U.S. stepped in to help intercept incoming projectiles, signaling tacit support.

The global reaction was immediate. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged both sides to cease hostilities, warning of a possible uncontrollable escalation. The United States acknowledged prior knowledge of the Israeli strike but denied involvement, while cautioning Iran against targeting U.S. forces. Russia and China condemned Israel’s actions, emphasizing Iranian sovereignty and calling for peaceful resolution.

Economically, the conflict sent shockwaves through global markets. Brent crude surged by 13%, surpassing $75 per barrel amid fears that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil artery. Stock markets experienced turbulence as investors sought safe havens, and defense sector stocks saw sharp gains.

Looking ahead, the situation remains dangerously volatile. Iran may escalate further with more extensive missile attacks or even revive its nuclear weapons program. Whether the United States will escalate militarily—possibly targeting IRGC bases—remains a critical question. Meanwhile, regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis may intensify attacks, expanding the conflict. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt global energy supplies and trigger wider economic consequences.

This conflict marks the first direct military clash between Israel and Iran after years of tension, signaling a shift into a high-risk phase in the Middle East. Whether international diplomacy—particularly UN-led peace efforts—can deescalate the violence will be decisive. The outcome will not only determine regional stability but also shape the future of global energy security and economic resilience.