暴力熊的興衰與LABUBU的未來：潮玩市場的價值博弈

潮流玩具市場近年來經歷了劇烈的起伏，從暴力熊（Bearbrick）的瘋狂炒作到價格崩盤，再到泡泡瑪特旗下LABUBU的崛起，這一現象背後折射出潮玩行業的深層邏輯——稀缺性與商業化的永恆博弈。

暴力熊的黃金時代：從潮流符號到金融資產

暴力熊（Bearbrick）由日本Medicom Toy公司於2001年推出，最初僅作為玩具展的伴手禮，卻意外成為全球潮玩界的標杆。它的成功源於幾個關鍵因素：

明星與品牌的聯名效應：與Supreme、BAPE、Chanel等頂級潮牌合作，使其從玩具升格為“潮流藝術品”。例如，Chanel聯名款因僅限VIP贈送，拍賣價一度突破2萬美金（約16萬港幣）。

限量策略製造稀缺性：部分款式全球僅發行數百隻，如藝術家岳敏君設計的“Qiu Tu”1000%版本，拍賣價高達480萬港幣，成為藏家競逐的珍品。

投資屬性推動金融化：與球鞋、NFT類似，暴力熊被賦予“升值潛力”，二級市場炒作使其價格短期內飆升10倍以上，吸引大量投機者入場。

然而，成也稀缺，敗也氾濫。

暴力熊的跌落神壇：過度商業化與市場泡沫破裂

2023年後，暴力熊的市場熱度驟降，價格暴跌，核心原因包括：

過度生產稀釋稀缺性：Medicom Toy為追求短期收益，大幅增加普通款產量，導致市場供過於求。原本售價3000元(人民幣)的基礎款1000%尺寸，如今二手市場僅值幾百元。

聯名氾濫削弱品牌價值：與速食、飲料等低端品牌合作（如與某國產奶茶聯名），使暴力熊從“高端潮玩”淪為“大眾消費品”，失去核心藏家支持。

經濟下行加速拋售潮：全球消費降級背景下，潮玩市場資金撤離，投機者集體拋售，部分限量款價格腰斬。

LABUBU會步暴力熊後塵嗎？泡泡瑪特的挑戰與機遇

LABUBU作為泡泡瑪特旗下最成功的IP之一，憑藉鮮明的角色設定（調皮搞怪的精靈形象）和盲盒行銷策略，迅速佔領市場。但與暴力熊類似，它同樣面臨潛在風險：

當前優勢：

情感連結強于暴力熊：LABUBU的“精靈”設定更具故事性，消費者不僅收藏，更投射情感，如“骷髏LABUBU”成為社交平臺熱門話題。

盲盒機制維持稀缺性：隱藏款概率僅0.5%，刺激重複購買，二級市場溢價顯著（如原價59元的盲盒，隱藏款可炒至上千元）。

未來風險：

過度擴張可能反噬：若泡泡瑪特為沖銷量大量生產普通款，可能重蹈暴力熊“氾濫貶值”的覆轍。

聯名策略需謹慎：目前LABUBU與迪士尼、芝麻街等IP合作效果良好，但若聯名過於頻繁或與低端品牌綁定，可能損害高端形象。

經濟波動影響消費：若潮玩市場整體遇冷，LABUBU的收藏需求可能萎縮，尤其依賴投機資金的稀有款價格或大幅回落。

泡泡瑪特會操控市場嗎？

潮玩行業普遍通過“控制稀缺性”維持價值，但直接干預二級市場（如高價回購）風險極高：

法律風險：人為操縱價格可能違反《反不正當競爭法》，此前已有盲盒品牌因“虛假庫存”遭消費者投訴。

更可行的策略：通過限定活動（如LABUBU世界巡迴展）、聯名獨家款（如盧浮宮特別版）維持熱度，而非直接干預交易市場。

潮玩市場的終極法則：稀缺性與情感的平衡

暴力熊的教訓表明，潮玩的價值核心在於稀缺性與情感共鳴的平衡。LABUBU若想避免重蹈覆轍，需：

控制產量，避免氾濫：保持稀有款的投放節奏，防止市場飽和。

創新設計，延長IP生命週期：如推出新角色或故事線，避免消費者審美疲勞。

謹慎選擇聯名物件：維持高端調性，避免過度商業化。

短期來看，LABUBU仍處於上升期，泡泡瑪特的全球化佈局（如巴黎盧浮宮門店、海外社交行銷）為其注入新動力12。但長期而言，潮玩市場的泡沫風險始終存在，唯有回歸“情感價值”而非“投機炒作”，才能實現可持續增長。

潮玩的本質是情感載體，而非金融工具——當市場忘記這一點，泡沫的破裂便已註定。

Bearbrick: From Global Icon to Market Cautionary Tale — And What It Means for LABUBU

Bearbrick, created by Japan’s Medicom Toy in 2001, began merely as a giveaway item at a toy convention. Yet, it unexpectedly rose to become a global benchmark in the designer toy scene. Its success can be traced to several key factors.

One major driver was its high-profile collaborations with celebrities and top fashion brands such as Supreme, BAPE, and Chanel. These partnerships elevated Bearbrick from a toy to a “fashion art collectible.” For instance, the Chanel edition, distributed exclusively to VIP clients, fetched auction prices exceeding $20,000 USD (approximately HKD 160,000).

Another critical element was its scarcity-driven strategy. Limited editions often had only a few hundred pieces worldwide. An example is the “Qiu Tu” 1000% Bearbrick designed by Chinese contemporary artist Yue Minjun, which sold for as much as HKD 4.8 million at auction — making it a coveted gem among collectors.

Bearbrick also gained traction as an investment object. Much like sneakers or NFTs, it was marketed with “appreciation potential,” and some models saw their resale prices skyrocket tenfold in a short period, luring a wave of speculators.

However, the same scarcity that drove its rise ultimately contributed to its fall — through oversaturation and a bursting market bubble.

The Fall of Bearbrick: Overcommercialization and Market Saturation

Post-2023, Bearbrick’s market appeal plummeted, and its prices crashed. Several structural issues drove this reversal.

First, overproduction diluted its sense of rarity. In pursuit of short-term profits, Medicom Toy ramped up the production of standard editions, flooding the market. The basic 1000% Bearbricks, once priced at RMB 3,000, now sell for just a few hundred yuan on the resale market.

Second, excessive collaborations eroded brand value. Tie-ins with low-end products — such as local milk tea brands and fast food chains — downgraded Bearbrick’s perceived exclusivity. What was once a symbol of elite street culture became a mass consumer item, alienating its core collectors.

Third, a broader economic downturn accelerated sell-offs. Amid global consumption slowdowns, money flowed out of the designer toy space. Speculators began liquidating their holdings, and prices of even limited editions were slashed by half or more.

Will LABUBU Follow in Bearbrick’s Footsteps? The Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for Pop Mart

LABUBU, one of the most successful intellectual properties (IPs) under Pop Mart, has rapidly gained market share thanks to its distinctive character design — a mischievous forest elf — and its effective blind box marketing strategy. However, like Bearbrick, it faces potential risks.

Currently, LABUBU has several advantages. Its emotional resonance is arguably stronger than Bearbrick’s. LABUBU isn’t just a collectible — it tells a story, and buyers often emotionally project onto the character. The “Skull LABUBU,” for instance, became a viral topic on social media.

Its blind box mechanism maintains a sense of rarity. With hidden variants appearing at just a 0.5% probability, it encourages repeat purchases. Some hidden figures originally priced at RMB 59 have been resold for thousands.

However, future challenges loom. Overexpansion could backfire. If Pop Mart starts mass-producing basic LABUBU figures to chase volume, it could trigger the same devaluation that plagued Bearbrick.

The collaboration strategy also requires caution. While current partnerships with Disney and Sesame Street have been well received, excessive or poorly matched co-branding — especially with lower-tier brands — could tarnish LABUBU’s premium image.

Economic volatility poses another risk. If the designer toy market cools as a whole, LABUBU’s collectibility — especially for speculative items — could weaken significantly.

Does Pop Mart Manipulate the Market?

The designer toy industry commonly maintains value by “managing scarcity,” but directly intervening in the secondary market (e.g., by buying back at high prices) carries significant risks.

There are legal concerns: price manipulation could potentially violate China’s Anti-Unfair Competition Law. Previous blind box brands have already faced consumer backlash for misleading inventory practices.

More viable strategies include holding limited-time events (like the LABUBU World Tour) or releasing exclusive co-branded editions (such as the Louvre LABUBU) to sustain brand heat — rather than meddling in resale dynamics directly.

The Core Rule of Designer Toys: Balancing Scarcity and Emotion

Bearbrick’s decline illustrates that the core value of designer toys lies in a delicate balance between scarcity and emotional connection. For LABUBU to avoid repeating that trajectory, Pop Mart must:

 • Control production to prevent market saturation and preserve exclusivity.

 • Innovate continuously by introducing new characters or storylines to keep consumers engaged.

 • Choose brand partnerships carefully to maintain its high-end positioning and avoid overcommercialization.

In the short term, LABUBU remains in its growth phase. Pop Mart’s global strategy — such as its Louvre store in Paris and overseas social media marketing — continues to inject fresh momentum into the brand.

But in the long term, the risk of a market bubble always looms. Only by shifting focus from speculation to emotional value can sustainable growth be achieved.

Designer toys are, at their heart, emotional vessels — not financial instruments. Once the market forgets that, the bursting of the bubble becomes inevitable.