近年來，中國大陸高校錄取率持續上升，但與此同時，一個值得關注的現象也在快速浮現——越來越多學生在考上大學後，選擇「不報到、不入學」，甚至主動放棄錄取資格。這一現象背後，其實是家庭與學生對「高等教育回報率」的信心下滑，也反映出整個社會對於學歷與就業之間落差的深刻焦慮。

首先，最根本的問題在於「學歷貶值、學費升值」的矛盾。根據大陸官方數據顯示，2025年中國高校畢業生將達到1222萬人，比三年前增加146萬，這意味著學歷門檻已經大幅下沉。然而，社會上可承載這些高學歷人群的「高質量崗位」卻沒有相應擴容。根據麥可思研究院數據，2023屆本科畢業生在畢業半年後的平均月薪僅為6050元人民幣，其中57.8%月薪低於6000元，只有7%能達到萬元以上。

更令人擔憂的是，一線城市就業競爭激烈，二三線城市的起薪水平相對偏低，導致很多本科生畢業後的收入甚至不如一些技校、職業院校的學生。技術型崗位薪酬穩定、就業門檻低，反而變得更具吸引力。傳統意義上「上大學就能出人頭地」的邏輯正在被撼動。「專業錯配」也是關鍵問題之一。中國社科院的研究指出，有約33%的高校畢業生從事與專業無關的工作；新浪教育調查則指出，只有26%的人認為自己目前的工作與所學專業真正吻合。這也意味著，學生投入四年甚至更長時間學習的專業知識，在職場中完全派不上用場，這讓不少人質疑：「這幾年讀書到底值不值得？」

再加上學費成本的逐年攀升，使得許多家庭開始仔細計算「教育的投資報酬率」。以一般民辦高校為例，四年下來的總費用（包含學費、住宿費與生活費）往往在 15至20萬人民幣，但如果畢業後起薪僅約5000元/月，要回本至少需要8～10年，而這還不包括可能存在的失業期、轉行期與城市生活成本的壓力。

研究生教育也不再是「穩賺不賠」的選擇。2025年，預計中國將有超過100萬名研究生畢業，代表「學歷通脹」已經滲透到更高層次的教育體系。許多碩士畢業生與本科生競爭同一類職位，實際薪資差距卻極小，進一步削弱延長教育年限的動力。基於這些現實，越來越多學生與家庭在拿到錄取通知書後，開始質疑是否值得投入如此高昂的時間與經濟成本來換取一個「可能無法兌現的未來」。尤其是當錄取學校為非重點院校、或所學專業就業前景模糊時，「不上了」、「先去打工」、「準備出國」、「轉向職教」等選擇便不再少見。此外，一些學生選擇「二戰」或「三戰」考研，也導致部分錄取新生放棄報到，將希望寄託於更高一級的學歷競賽。某些地區甚至出現「錄取人數遠超實際入學人數」的現象，讓高校招生體系出現供需錯配。

總體來看，這波「不報到潮」不只是個別學生的個人選擇，而是涵蓋家庭經濟、教育政策與社會結構的集體反思。當學歷不再是成功的保證，而學費卻年年上漲，學生與家庭自然會開始權衡風險與回報。在這樣的背景下，傳統高等教育如何自我革新、提升教育與就業的連結度，將成為未來幾年中國教育改革的關鍵課題。

In recent years, the college admission rate in mainland China has continued to rise. However, alongside this trend, a striking phenomenon has emerged—an increasing number of students are choosing not to enroll in college even after being admitted, with some voluntarily giving up their admission altogether. This phenomenon reflects a growing lack of confidence among families and students in the return on investment (ROI) of higher education, as well as broader societal anxiety over the widening gap between academic qualifications and actual job prospects.

At the heart of the issue lies a sharp contradiction: academic degrees are becoming devalued while tuition fees continue to rise. According to official data, the number of college graduates in China is expected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, an increase of 1.46 million compared to three years ago. This suggests that the threshold for earning a degree has significantly lowered. Yet, the job market has not expanded with enough high-quality positions to accommodate this rapidly growing pool of graduates. Research from MyCOS shows that the average monthly salary for 2023 undergraduate graduates six months post-graduation was only 6,050 RMB, with 57.8% earning less than 6,000 RMB, and just 7% making over 10,000 RMB.

What’s even more concerning is that while job competition in top-tier cities remains fierce, salary levels in second- and third-tier cities tend to be significantly lower. As a result, many college graduates find themselves earning less than graduates from vocational or technical schools. Jobs in skilled trades often offer stable pay and lower entry requirements, making them increasingly appealing. This is challenging the long-standing belief that “going to college guarantees upward mobility.”

Mismatch between majors and employment is another critical issue. Research from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that about 33% of college graduates work in jobs unrelated to their field of study. A report from Sina Education similarly reveals that only 26% of respondents believe their current job aligns well with their academic major. This means that years spent studying a specialized subject often go unused in the real world, leading many to question: “Was college even worth it?”

Adding to this is the rising cost of higher education. Many families are now carefully calculating the cost-effectiveness of sending a child to college. For example, at a typical private university in China, the total cost of a four-year degree—including tuition, accommodation, and living expenses—can range from 150,000 to 200,000 RMB. If a graduate starts with a monthly salary of just 5,000 RMB, it would take at least 8 to 10 years to break even, not accounting for potential unemployment, career changes, or high living costs in urban areas.

Even graduate education is no longer the safe bet it once was. In 2025, over 1 million graduate students are expected to complete their degrees, indicating that credential inflation has now reached postgraduate levels. Many master’s degree holders are now competing with undergraduates for the same types of positions, often with minimal salary differences—further reducing the incentive to pursue additional years of education.

Faced with these realities, more and more students and families are re-evaluating whether it is worth investing so much time and money for a degree that may not yield the expected returns. This is especially true when the admitted school is not a top-tier institution or the chosen major lacks strong job prospects. In these cases, it’s increasingly common for students to consider alternatives like taking a job first, studying abroad, or enrolling in vocational education instead.

Moreover, some students are choosing to retake entrance exams to aim for better universities or graduate programs, often referred to as “second attempts” or even “third attempts.” This trend has contributed to newly admitted students skipping enrollment, placing their hopes in acquiring a more prestigious degree later. In certain regions, this has led to a mismatch between admission quotas and actual enrollment numbers, disrupting university recruitment and planning.

Overall, this wave of students opting out of college enrollment is not just a matter of individual choice—it is a collective reflection of economic pressure, shifting education policies, and evolving societal expectations. When a diploma no longer guarantees success, yet tuition fees continue to rise year after year, students and families are naturally becoming more cautious, weighing risks against rewards. In this context, the future of traditional higher education in China hinges on its ability to reform and realign itself—to strengthen the link between education and employment outcomes. Doing so will be crucial to restoring faith in the value of a college degree and to addressing the broader challenge of “education without opportunity.”