從民政部的官方數據來看，中國近十年婚姻結構的變化非常明顯，尤其是在初婚比例與離結比之間，呈現出一定的負相關趨勢。數據顯示，2013年全國初婚人數為2,386萬人，而到2022年僅剩1,052萬人，短短十年間減少1,334萬人，跌幅高達55.9%。這意味著越來越多適齡人口推遲甚至放棄首次結婚，婚姻在社會生活中的普遍性正在下降。

2023年的分省數據進一步揭示初婚比例與離結比之間的關係。以西藏為例，其初婚比例高達91.62%，是全國最高，而離結比僅為23.87%，在全國最低位置。這反映出在西藏，結婚大多以初婚為主，離婚情況相對少見，婚姻穩定性較高，並且社會文化背景可能更強調傳統婚姻價值觀與長期伴侶關係的維繫。與之形成鮮明對比的是黑龍江，其初婚比例僅為59.25%，位列全國最低，而離結比則高達63.13%，為全國最高。這顯示黑龍江的婚姻結構中，非初婚（包括二婚及以上）的比例非常高，且離婚佔比極大。這種情況可能與當地人口流失、經濟結構變化、社會心態轉變等多重因素有關。人口外流導致適婚青年減少，同時經濟壓力與生活環境變動可能讓婚姻更難維持，離婚率因此偏高。

綜觀各省市的數據，可以發現一個趨勢：離結比越高的地區，其初婚比例往往越低。這背後的原因可能有幾個層面。首先，高離結比意味著離婚在該地更為普遍，這不僅反映婚姻穩定性下降，也可能影響未婚人口對婚姻的信心，使他們推遲甚至放棄結婚。其次，離婚人口增加，也會帶來更多再婚情況，從而拉低整體初婚比例。第三，經濟、人口流動和文化差異也在其中發揮作用，例如大城市和東北部分地區在經濟轉型與人口結構老化背景下，更容易出現高離結比與低初婚比例並存的情況。

整體而言，中國婚姻結構正面臨顯著變化，初婚比例下滑與離結比上升在部分地區呈現同步趨勢。若這種態勢持續，未來婚姻在人口結構中的地位可能會進一步弱化，從而對生育率、家庭結構及社會文化帶來深遠影響。

According to official data from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, the structure of marriage in the country has undergone significant changes over the past decade, particularly showing a negative correlation between the proportion of first marriages and the divorce-to-marriage ratio. In 2013, there were 23.86 million first marriages nationwide, but by 2022, that number had dropped to just 10.52 million — a decrease of 13.34 million, or 55.9%, in only ten years. This indicates that more and more people of marriageable age are delaying or even forgoing their first marriage, and marriage is becoming less universal in social life.

Provincial data from 2023 further reveals the relationship between first marriage rates and divorce-to-marriage ratios. Take Tibet as an example: its first marriage rate reached as high as 91.62%, the highest in the country, while its divorce-to-marriage ratio was only 23.87%, the lowest nationwide. This reflects a situation where marriages in Tibet are predominantly first marriages, divorce is relatively rare, and the social-cultural context likely places a stronger emphasis on traditional marital values and long-term partnership stability.

In sharp contrast, Heilongjiang’s first marriage rate was just 59.25%, the lowest in the country, while its divorce-to-marriage ratio soared to 63.13%, the highest nationwide. This suggests that in Heilongjiang, a large proportion of marriages are remarriages (second or more) and divorces make up a substantial share. Such a pattern could be related to population loss, economic restructuring, and shifting social attitudes. Outmigration reduces the pool of marriageable youth, and combined with economic pressures and lifestyle changes, marriage stability declines, leading to a higher divorce rate.

Overall, the data across provinces suggests a trend: areas with higher divorce-to-marriage ratios tend to have lower first marriage rates. The reasons behind this may include several factors. First, a high divorce-to-marriage ratio means divorce is more common in the area, which not only reflects declining marital stability but may also reduce the confidence of unmarried individuals in marriage, causing them to postpone or avoid it altogether. Second, as the divorced population increases, remarriages become more common, which naturally lowers the overall proportion of first marriages. Third, economic conditions, population mobility, and cultural differences also play important roles — for instance, large cities and certain regions in Northeast China, amid economic transitions and aging demographics, tend to display a combination of high divorce-to-marriage ratios and low first marriage rates.

In short, China’s marriage structure is undergoing a significant transformation, with declining first marriage rates and rising divorce-to-marriage ratios occurring simultaneously in certain areas. If this trend continues, the role of marriage in the demographic landscape may weaken further, which could have profound implications for fertility rates, family structures, and broader social culture.