位於廣東東莞高埗的裕元鞋廠，曾是製鞋業的巨無霸企業之一，在巔峰時期員工人數超過十五萬人，廠區內生產線密集、機器聲不絕於耳，是許多人青春歲月與打工記憶的重要場景。然而，隨著產業鏈轉移，裕元鞋廠如今已經將大部分生產線搬遷至越南，原本繁忙的廠區如今變得人去樓空，顯得格外荒涼，留下的只是昔日輝煌的影子。

2025年4月17日，裕元鞋廠母公司——寶成集團旗下的重要子公司裕元企業發佈盈利警告，預計今年第一季度的利潤將比去年同期下降幅度不超過25%。這一消息尤其受到關注，因為當前全球製鞋產業的景氣本被認為正處於穩健復甦的階段，市場預期相對樂觀，如今卻被這份財報預警打破氛圍。

寶成方面對此解釋，利潤下滑主要受到全球經濟局勢複雜多變的影響，經營環境波動加劇，使得鞋類產品的製造成本上升。不僅生產效率受到影響，人工成本也不斷攀升，這些因素共同壓縮公司的盈利空間。此外，全球供應鏈的不確定性、原材料價格波動以及國際貿易政策的變化，都是影響業績的重要原因。

值得一提的是，裕元此次的盈利預警，發生在美國宣佈實施對等關稅政策之後，成為首家上市後發佈此類警告的製鞋企業。由於裕元在全球製鞋市場中占有舉足輕重的地位，其業績下滑不僅關乎公司本身，也可能反映出全球製造業在面對貿易摩擦、經濟放緩以及成本壓力時的脆弱性，對未來全球經濟景氣的走向更增添不確定性。

Located in Gaobu, Dongguan, Guangdong, the Yu Yuan Shoe Factory was once a giant in the footwear manufacturing industry. At its peak, it employed more than 150,000 workers, with production lines packed tightly together and the constant hum of machinery filling the air. For many, it was a significant place tied to memories of youth and factory work. However, with the shift in the global supply chain, Yu Yuan has now relocated most of its production lines to Vietnam. The once-bustling factory complex now stands empty and desolate, leaving behind only the shadow of its former glory.

On April 17, 2025, Yu Yuan Industrial, a key subsidiary of its parent company Pou Chen Group, issued a profit warning, forecasting that its first-quarter profit this year would decline by no more than 25% compared to the same period last year. The news drew particular attention, as the global footwear industry had been considered to be in a stable recovery phase, with relatively optimistic market expectations — an outlook now dampened by this earnings warning.

According to Pou Chen, the profit decline was primarily caused by the complex and volatile global economic situation, which has heightened operational uncertainties and pushed up manufacturing costs for footwear products. Production efficiency has been affected, labor costs have continued to climb, and these factors together have squeezed profit margins. In addition, global supply chain uncertainties, fluctuations in raw material prices, and changes in international trade policies have all played significant roles in impacting performance.

It is worth noting that Yu Yuan’s profit warning came after the United States announced the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies, making it the first listed footwear company to issue such a warning following the policy change. Given Yu Yuan’s significant position in the global footwear market, its profit decline not only affects the company itself but may also signal the vulnerability of global manufacturing when faced with trade frictions, economic slowdowns, and cost pressures — adding further uncertainty to the future trajectory of the global economy.