德國政府近日在執政聯盟內部達成一致，決定重啟強制服兵役相關制度，這是自2011年暫停義務役以來最具象徵性的一次政策轉向。根據新制度的設計，所有年滿18歲的男性都將被要求填寫兵役問卷並接受體檢，透過這兩個程序來建立完整的兵役資料庫。德國政府強調，首要目標仍然是希望以志願入伍為主，但若志願兵額長期不足，政府就會啟動抽籤或類似的選拔機制，決定誰必須服役。

這項政策背後的核心原因，是德國對安全情勢的評估已經徹底改變。俄烏戰爭的爆發使德國意識到，長期依賴志願軍已無法滿足國防需求，更無法在北約集體防禦中承擔應有的角色。德國政府在多份公開說明中提到，俄羅斯對歐洲構成的威脅正逐年升高，歐洲安全環境的穩定不再像過去那樣理所當然。在這種情況下，重新建構兵源體系被視為必要措施。同時，北約內部亦一直希望德國增加兵力與軍費，以符合其作為歐洲最大經濟體的地位。

義務役的恢復同時也反映一個更深層的問題：德國的志願役制度多年來招募困難，軍隊人力不足、後備戰力薄弱、後勤基礎建設老化。若真要在歐洲東翼扮演更積極的角色，德國勢必需要更多具基本軍事訓練的人力，因此兵役制度改革就成為一項不得不推行的政策。

這項改革將對歐洲產生長期而深遠的影響。首先，作為歐盟與北約的重要成員，德國的政策往往具有示範效果。當德國準備恢復義務役，其他仍在觀望的歐洲國家，例如荷蘭、比利時、西班牙或捷克，可能也會重新檢視本國軍事制度。而原先已維持義務役制度的北歐與東歐國家，則可能因此加強自身兵源擴充的政策力度，讓整個歐洲再次走向「全民防衛化」的趨勢。

除此之外，德國的政策也可能增加歐洲在軍事整合上的聯動。若德國能成功補足軍隊規模，未來在北約的東側防線、波羅的海區域及黑海附近，德軍的部署與參與程度勢必提高，歐洲防衛的地緣政治板塊也將因此重新洗牌。這將對俄羅斯產生壓力，進一步刺激莫斯科調整軍事姿態，使歐洲安全情勢變得更加緊繃。

然而，這項改革也伴隨不少風險。德國社會多年習慣和平與自由，年輕世代對義務兵役普遍缺乏興趣甚至反感，政策推行恐遭遇阻力。另外，德國的軍事訓練設施與後勤基地多年未依義務役規模維護，若真要在全國推動徵兵與訓練，將會面臨巨大的行政與財政壓力。更重要的是，男女是否應擁有相同兵役義務這個議題，也必然在未來引起激烈辯論。

整體而言，德國恢復義務兵役制度不僅是國內國防政策的全面轉變，更象徵著歐洲整體安全框架的重新塑形。這項改革標誌著歐洲進入後冷戰以來最具軍事化色彩的新階段，而未來十年，歐洲的安全、政治與文化環境都可能因此而出現根本性變化。

Germany’s decision to revive elements of compulsory military service marks one of the most significant shifts in its national security policy since the suspension of conscription in 2011. Under the new framework, every male citizen turning 18 will be required to complete a military questionnaire and undergo a medical examination. These steps are designed to rebuild a comprehensive national registry of potential recruits. Although the government still emphasizes a volunteer-first approach, it openly acknowledges that if volunteer numbers remain insufficient, a lottery or similar selection mechanism will be introduced to determine who must serve.

The driving force behind this change lies in Germany’s reassessment of its security environment. Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, German policymakers have come to believe that relying solely on a volunteer army is no longer adequate. The Bundeswehr has struggled with recruitment, personnel shortages, outdated infrastructure, and an insufficient reserve force. As regional security deteriorates and threats from Russia appear increasingly direct, Germany sees a strengthened manpower system as essential for its own defense and for meeting NATO obligations. Within NATO, partners have long expected Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, to contribute more troops and resources to collective defense.

The revival of conscription also reflects wider anxieties across Europe. Germany’s shift could set a precedent for other EU and NATO members that have been debating similar reforms. Countries such as the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, and the Czech Republic—many of which suspended conscription in the past two decades—may feel pressure to revisit their military manpower structures. In Northern and Eastern Europe, where conscription has already been maintained or reinstated, Germany’s decision is likely to reinforce the trend toward “societal defense,” in which large segments of the population undergo basic military training.

This policy shift will inevitably reshape Europe’s security landscape. A Germany capable of fielding a larger and more consistently trained force will play a more decisive role along NATO’s eastern flank, particularly in the Baltic region and near the Black Sea. Such developments could strengthen Europe’s deterrence posture but also intensify tensions with Russia. Moscow may respond with its own military adjustments, raising the stakes of the regional security competition.

Despite the strategic rationale, Germany faces substantial internal challenges. The country has cultivated a political culture centered on peace, social liberalism, and individual freedom for decades. Many young Germans are reluctant or outright opposed to mandatory service, and public resistance may complicate the government’s timeline. Practical hurdles are equally significant: Germany’s military training facilities, barracks, logistics systems, and administrative structures have not been maintained at levels suitable for large-scale conscription. Rebuilding this infrastructure will require major financial investment and long-term planning. Moreover, the question of gender equality in conscription—whether women should also be required to serve—will likely spark intense political and social debate.

Overall, Germany’s move signals more than a domestic policy revision; it reflects a profound transformation in Europe’s strategic mindset. The continent appears to be entering a new era in which defense, deterrence, and military preparedness are becoming central political themes once more. Over the next decade, Europe’s political alignments, security priorities, and societal attitudes may undergo fundamental change as a result of this shift.