2025年，隨著俄烏戰爭持續延宕，烏克蘭難民問題再度成為歐洲政治的核心議題。其中，德國成為承接壓力最大的國家。截至最新統計，德國境內接收的烏克蘭難民已超過一百二十萬人，占整個歐盟境內烏難民總數的約28.3%。這個比例不僅顯示德國在歐洲難民安置體系中的主導角色，也反映出戰事影響之深，使得大量烏克蘭家庭仍無法返回家園。

德國政府在戰爭初期採取大幅開放的政策，為烏克蘭人提供臨時保護身份、居留許可、醫療與教育資源，甚至允許難民快速接入勞動市場。然而，隨著時間拉長，德國國內的社會與政治壓力逐漸累積。住房緊缺、福利負擔上升、地方政府財政壓力加劇，使得難民政策本身開始引發激烈的公共辯論。

在此背景下，德國總理梅爾茨（Friedrich Merz）近期公開對烏克蘭總統澤連斯基釋出罕見而直接的警告。他指出，德國境內出現越來越多「年輕且具有服兵役能力的烏克蘭男性」前來申請庇護或臨時居留，這種趨勢可能削弱烏克蘭自身的戰力與國家運作能力。梅爾茨強調，德國願意持續支持烏克蘭，但不希望看到大量適齡男性在戰爭期間離開祖國，將前線壓力轉嫁給仍在作戰的同胞。

他的言論在德國政壇與輿論界引起廣泛討論。一方面，有人認為梅爾茨說出許多歐洲國家不敢公開表達的現實：烏克蘭確實面臨嚴重的人口外流，而歐盟國家並非能無限承擔戰爭難民的長期成本。另一方面，也有批評聲認為梅爾茨的說法可能將難民問題簡化，忽略了男性離境背後的複雜動機，包括對戰爭的不信任、家庭安全考量、以及烏克蘭政府動員體系的壓力。

烏克蘭官方尚未對此作出強烈反駁，但澤連斯基政府持續強調，全國仍在依靠國際援助維持抵抗能力，並希望歐盟能持續提供支持，而非對流亡者施加限制。德烏雙方的外交互動因此出現新的敏感面向。

從更宏觀的角度來看，這則新聞折射出戰爭對歐洲社會的結構性衝擊。難民潮不再只是人道議題，而是牽動軍事、外交、內政與選舉政治的多層次挑戰。德國作為歐盟最大經濟體，必須同時在維持支持烏克蘭與避免內部社會撕裂之間尋找平衡，而烏克蘭則必須面對人口流失對戰爭持久力造成的現實壓力。

這場爭議因此並非單純的外交警告，而是象徵著戰爭拖延所帶來的疲態正逐步浮現，歐洲各國開始重新審視自己能夠承受的極限，而烏克蘭也面臨前所未有的結構性挑戰。

In 2025, as the war between Russia and Ukraine drags into yet another year, the refugee issue has once again become one of the core political pressures within Europe. Among all EU member states, Germany bears the heaviest burden. Recent data shows that Germany has received more than 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, accounting for roughly 28.3% of all Ukrainians displaced within the European Union. This figure highlights Germany’s leading role in the EU’s refugee-reception structure and underscores the profound, long-lasting effects of the conflict on millions of Ukrainian civilians.

When the war first erupted, Germany adopted an unusually open-door policy, granting Ukrainians temporary protection status, residency permits, access to healthcare and education, and even fast-track entry into the labor market. Yet as the conflict persisted far beyond initial expectations, the strain on German society became increasingly visible. Housing shortages intensified, municipal governments faced mounting financial pressure, and welfare expenditures soared. As a result, public debate over Ukrainian refugees became louder and more politically sensitive.

Against this backdrop, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered a rare and unusually direct warning to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Merz noted a growing number of young Ukrainian men—many of them of fighting age—seeking refuge or residency in Germany. He argued that this trend could further weaken Ukraine’s ability to sustain its military resistance, placing greater pressure on the soldiers who remain on the front lines. Merz emphasized that while Germany remains committed to supporting Ukraine, it cannot ignore the political and social consequences of large numbers of draft-eligible men leaving their country during wartime.

His remarks triggered intense debate across Germany. Some observers believe Merz voiced a concern many European leaders share but are reluctant to express publicly: that Ukraine is suffering from severe population loss, and European nations cannot shoulder the long-term costs of the war indefinitely. Others criticized Merz for oversimplifying the refugee issue, pointing out that the reasons young men flee are often far more complex—ranging from distrust of the mobilization process to concerns for family safety and the uncertainties of prolonged conflict.

The Ukrainian government did not issue a strong rebuke, but officials reiterated that the country’s ability to continue resisting Russian aggression depends heavily on international support. They also urged EU nations to avoid imposing restrictions that could further complicate the humanitarian situation for Ukrainian civilians abroad. The diplomatic dynamic between Berlin and Kyiv has therefore entered a more delicate phase.

On a broader level, this controversy reflects the deeper structural shock the war has inflicted on Europe. The refugee issue is no longer just a matter of humanitarian responsibility; it now intersects with military readiness, domestic politics, economic pressures, and foreign policy strategy. Germany, as the EU’s largest economy, must walk a tightrope—continuing to support Ukraine while preventing domestic tensions from escalating. Ukraine, at the same time, faces the existential challenge of losing both manpower and population stability as the war becomes increasingly protracted.

In that sense, Merz’s warning is not merely a diplomatic message. It symbolizes Europe’s growing fatigue, the limits of its political capacity, and the harsh reality that the longer the war continues, the more complex and fragmented the European response is likely to become.