自2025年底延續至2026年初，中國飛往日本的航空運力出現明顯且急遽的下滑，被業界形容為「雪崩式減班」。這波變化並非單純的市場調整，而是深受中日雙邊政治關係緊張所牽動。根據多方資訊顯示，中國相關部門已向航空公司釋出明確訊號，要求縮減赴日航班規模，相關措施預計至少持續至2026年3月，使中日空中交通在短時間內急速降溫。

截至2026年1月，中日之間的航班運力已較原先規劃縮水約四成，成為近年少見的大幅調整。僅以2026年1月為例，就已有超過2,195個航班遭到取消，估計直接影響旅客人數約4.4萬人，不少旅客臨時被迫改期、改道或取消行程，對商務與觀光往返均造成實質衝擊。更嚴峻的是，部分航線並非單純減班，而是完全停飛，在1月初的統計中，共有46條中日航線處於「零航班」狀態，形同暫時中斷空中連結。受影響的中國城市涵蓋上海、北京、廣州、成都、南京等26個主要或次要樞紐，日本方面則涉及東京、大阪、名古屋、札幌、沖繩在內的18個機場，顯示衝擊範圍並非局限於單一地區，而是全面擴散。

面對突如其來的政策與市場變動，中國大型航空公司如中國國航、東方航空、南方航空等，已陸續延長日本航線的免費退票與改簽政策，期限多數拉長至2026年3月28日，以降低旅客不滿與糾紛，同時也為後續政策走向保留調整空間。不過，這類彈性措施在安撫乘客之餘，也反映出航空公司對短期內航線恢復的信心不足。

從根本原因來看，此次航班大幅縮減的核心仍在於外交與政治層面的變化。日本政府近期在台灣相關議題上的公開立場與表態，引發北京方面強烈反彈，中方隨後透過多種渠道對赴日旅遊釋出風險警示，政治訊號清楚而直接。除了輿論與外交層面的交鋒外，行政力量的介入亦被視為關鍵因素之一。市場普遍傳出，中國官方不僅呼籲民眾審慎評估赴日旅遊或留學的必要性，亦要求旅行社實質性縮減約四成的赴日簽證申請量，使得旅遊產業鏈從源頭便開始收縮。

在這樣的政治氣氛下，市場需求自然迅速萎縮。原本支撐中日航線高密度運行的觀光與探親需求明顯下滑，商務旅客亦因不確定性上升而延後行程，迫使航空公司不是直接取消班次，就是將原本使用的中大型客機改以小型機執飛，以降低營運風險與成本。

這波減班潮對日本所造成的影響相當深遠。觀光層面上，相關機構估算，若情勢持續發展，2026年日本可能因此流失高達90億美元的觀光收入。原本計畫赴日的中國旅客，逐漸將目標轉向東南亞、韓國、澳洲甚至美國等替代市場，航空公司也隨之調整航網，將運力重新配置至政治風險相對較低、需求穩定的地區，進一步改變亞太航線的整體結構。

在日本國內，影響呈現出相對矛盾的兩面性。一方面，中國旅客銳減確實在短期內緩解京都、東京等長期面臨的「過度旅遊」問題，熱門景區的人潮壓力下降，市中心街道與公共交通的擁擠程度有所改善，對當地居民生活品質帶來某種程度的喘息空間。另一方面，過度依賴中國客源的飯店、餐飲業與免稅店卻首當其衝，營收出現明顯下滑，部分觀光城市甚至出現住宿價格下調的情況，例如京都市內的飯店房價已開始鬆動，顯示市場供需結構正在快速轉變。

除了觀光產業，教育與文化交流領域同樣受到波及。中國教育部近期建議學生與家庭審慎評估赴日留學計畫，在此背景下，日本原本高度依賴的中國留學生來源面臨不確定性。以結構來看，中國學生約佔日本外國留學生總數的三成，一旦流入減少，將直接衝擊日本大學、語言學校及相關住宿、生活服務產業，長期而言也可能削弱雙邊民間交流的深度與廣度。

整體而言，這場中日航班「雪崩式」減班並非短暫的交通調整，而是一連串政治、行政與市場力量交織下的結果，其影響已從航空業擴散至觀光、教育與區域經濟層面，後續發展仍高度取決於雙邊關係是否出現轉圜空間。

From late 2025 into early 2026, air travel between China and Japan has experienced a sharp and dramatic contraction, widely described within the aviation industry as an “avalanche-style” reduction in flights. This development is not simply the result of routine market adjustments, but is deeply rooted in rising political tensions between the two countries. According to multiple sources, Chinese authorities have signaled airlines to significantly scale back services to Japan, with the restrictions expected to remain in place at least until March 2026, causing a rapid cooling of air connectivity between the two nations.

As of January 2026, overall capacity on China–Japan routes has fallen by approximately 40 percent compared with previous schedules, marking one of the most severe cutbacks in recent years. In January alone, more than 2,195 flights were canceled, directly affecting an estimated 44,000 passengers. Many travelers were forced to postpone, reroute, or cancel their trips at short notice, disrupting both leisure and business travel. Even more striking, some routes were not merely reduced but suspended entirely. In early January, a total of 46 China–Japan routes recorded “zero flights,” effectively severing air links on those corridors. On the Chinese side, 26 cities were impacted, including major hubs such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Nanjing. In Japan, 18 airports were affected, among them Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Sapporo, and Okinawa, underscoring the breadth of the disruption.

In response to these sudden policy and market shifts, major Chinese carriers such as Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern have extended flexible refund and rebooking policies for Japan-bound flights, with most waivers now valid through March 28, 2026. While these measures help ease passenger dissatisfaction and reduce disputes, they also reflect airlines’ limited confidence in a near-term recovery of services.

At the root of the flight reductions lies a deterioration in diplomatic relations. Public statements by the Japanese government regarding Taiwan-related issues prompted strong reactions from Beijing, after which Chinese authorities issued travel risk advisories concerning trips to Japan. Beyond diplomatic rhetoric, administrative intervention has played a significant role as well. Market sources report that Chinese officials have urged citizens to carefully reconsider travel or study plans in Japan, and have instructed travel agencies to cut Japan-related visa applications by roughly 40 percent. This effectively constricted the tourism pipeline at its source.

Against this backdrop, market demand declined rapidly. Tourism and family-visit travel, which had long sustained dense China–Japan flight schedules, weakened noticeably, while business travel also slowed amid heightened uncertainty. Airlines were left with little choice but to cancel services or downgrade aircraft types, replacing larger planes with smaller ones in an effort to control costs and manage operational risk.

The consequences for Japan have been substantial. From a tourism perspective, analysts estimate that Japan could lose as much as USD 9 billion in tourism revenue in 2026 if the situation persists. Chinese travelers who had planned trips to Japan have increasingly shifted toward alternative destinations such as Southeast Asia, South Korea, Australia, and the United States. Airlines have followed suit, reallocating capacity to regions with lower political risk and more stable demand, thereby reshaping the broader structure of Asia-Pacific air routes.

Within Japan, the impact has been notably mixed. On the positive side, the sharp decline in Chinese visitors has temporarily eased overtourism pressures in popular destinations such as Kyoto and Tokyo. Crowding at major attractions has lessened, and congestion on city streets and public transportation has improved, offering local residents some relief. On the negative side, businesses heavily dependent on Chinese tourists—including hotels, restaurants, and duty-free shops—have suffered significant revenue losses. In some areas, accommodation prices have begun to fall, with hotels in central Kyoto already showing signs of rate softening, reflecting a rapid shift in supply-demand dynamics.

The effects extend beyond tourism into education and cultural exchange. China’s Ministry of Education has recently advised students and families to carefully assess plans to study in Japan. Given that Chinese students account for roughly 30 percent of Japan’s international student population, any sustained decline could directly impact Japanese universities, language schools, and related housing and service industries. Over the longer term, this trend may also weaken the depth and breadth of people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.

Overall, the “avalanche-style” reduction in China–Japan flights is far more than a short-term adjustment in air services. It represents the combined outcome of political tensions, administrative measures, and shifting market forces, with effects radiating from aviation into tourism, education, and regional economies. Future developments will depend heavily on whether there is room for diplomatic easing and a recalibration of bilateral relations.