日本眾議院於2026年2月8日完成改選，選舉結果出現高度震撼性的政治轉折。由首相高市早苗領導的自民黨（LDP）不僅取得壓倒性勝利，更在單獨執政的情況下拿下超過233席，正式跨越眾議院過半門檻。在此基礎上，若再加上日本維新會等理念相近勢力的支持，執政陣營極有可能達到甚至突破修憲所需的三分之二席次。這不只是一場單純的選舉勝利，而是象徵日本政治權力結構的高度集中，以及國家路線可能出現長期而深刻的轉向。

從對外關係來看，這次選舉結果被普遍解讀為日本社會對「更強硬安全路線」的明確授權，尤其在對中政策上格外顯著。中國多位學者與國際觀察人士普遍認為，高市早苗將不僅延續安倍晉三時期的對中強硬立場，甚至可能在語言與政策層面進一步明確化。日本預期將更加緊密地綁定美日同盟，在軍事、情報與科技領域深化合作，同時積極串聯區域內其他民主陣營國家，以共同回應中國在東亞與第一島鏈的影響力擴張。

在這樣的戰略框架下，台日關係的重要性也被明顯拉高。高市早苗長期以來被視為日本政壇中立場最為親台的政治人物之一，她多次公開表態「台灣有事即是日本有事」，並將台海穩定視為日本自身安全不可分割的一部分。隨著自民黨取得前所未有的穩固多數，未來台日之間在安全對話、情報交流與準官方合作層面的互動，預期將更為頻繁且更具實質內容。日本在台海議題上的角色，也可能從過往的「間接關切者」，逐步轉向更具存在感的區域行動者。

同時，修憲議題將首次從「長期政治口號」轉化為「具備現實可行性」的政策選項。執政陣營一旦掌握三分之二席次，高市政府便可正式推動修憲程序，尤其是針對憲法第九條中自衛隊法律地位的明確化。這不僅是日本內部長年爭論的核心議題，也被外界視為日本對中國軍事現代化與區域壓力的直接制度性回應。修憲若真正啟動，將意味著日本戰後安全體制進入一個全新階段。

在經濟層面，自民黨的全面勝利同樣帶來高度政策可預期性。高市早苗所主張的並非傳統保守派的緊縮財政，而是一種她稱之為「負責且主動的財政政策」。其核心理念在於，在通膨與全球地緣政治高度不確定的背景下，日本不應過早回到財政緊縮軌道，而應透過政府支出與產業投資，主動為經濟注入動能。

選戰期間，高市曾提出暫停徵收食品消費稅的構想，試圖直接回應長期通膨對一般家庭造成的生活壓力。這類政策主張顯示，新政府在經濟治理上將更重視「體感經濟」與民眾實際負擔，而非僅僅追求帳面上的財政紀律。雖然相關措施仍需在國會內進行制度化討論，但方向已相當明確。

市場層面的反應則相對正面。由於自民黨取得所謂的「絕對安定多數」，未來幾年政策方向出現劇烈反覆的機率大幅降低，這種高度穩定性被投資人視為利多。經濟學界普遍認為，政策連續性有助於提振股市信心，並為企業中長期投資提供更清晰的預期環境。

更深層的戰略目標，則在於回應日本長達三十年的經濟停滯問題。高市政府提出「富裕而強大的日本」作為核心願景，試圖同時從民生、產業與國防三個層面重塑國家競爭力。在安全環境惡化的背景下，國防產業被視為結合經濟成長與國家戰略的重要引擎，未來相關投資與產業重整，預料將成為政策重點之一。

整體而言，這場選舉不只是自民黨的一次大勝，更標誌著日本正式邁入「高市早苗時代」。在對外層面，日本將在亞洲安全架構中扮演更主動、更強硬的角色；在對內層面，則將嘗試以擴張性政策打破長期停滯的心理與結構束縛。這樣的雙重轉向，無疑將對東亞局勢與日本自身的未來走向，產生深遠影響。

On February 8, 2026, Japan completed the general election for the House of Representatives, producing a politically seismic outcome. Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved an overwhelming victory, winning more than 233 seats on its own and thereby securing an outright majority. When combined with support from ideologically aligned forces such as the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling camp is widely expected to reach—or even surpass—the two-thirds threshold required to initiate constitutional revision. This result represents far more than a routine electoral win; it signals an unprecedented concentration of political power and the likelihood of a long-term shift in Japan’s national trajectory.

In terms of foreign relations, the election is broadly interpreted as a clear public mandate for a tougher national security posture, particularly toward China. Chinese scholars and international analysts alike anticipate that Takaichi will not only continue the hardline approach associated with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but may articulate it even more explicitly in both rhetoric and policy. Japan is expected to further tighten its alliance with the United States, deepening cooperation in military, intelligence, and technological domains, while actively coordinating with other like-minded partners in the region to respond collectively to China’s expanding influence in East Asia and along the First Island Chain.

Within this strategic framework, relations between Japan and Taiwan are set to gain even greater prominence. Takaichi has long been regarded as one of the most openly pro-Taiwan figures in Japanese politics. She has repeatedly stated that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency,” framing stability in the Taiwan Strait as inseparable from Japan’s own national security. With the LDP now enjoying an exceptionally solid parliamentary majority, interactions between Japan and Taiwan—ranging from security dialogue and intelligence exchanges to quasi-official cooperation—are expected to become more frequent and more substantive. Japan’s role in Taiwan-related issues may gradually evolve from that of a concerned observer to a more visibly engaged regional actor.

At the same time, constitutional revision has moved from a long-standing political slogan to a realistically actionable policy agenda. Should the ruling bloc firmly secure a two-thirds majority, the Takaichi administration would be able to formally initiate the constitutional amendment process, particularly with regard to clarifying the legal status of the Self-Defense Forces under Article 9. This issue has sat at the heart of Japan’s postwar political debate for decades, and is widely seen abroad as a direct institutional response to China’s military modernization and growing regional pressure. If revision efforts proceed in earnest, Japan’s postwar security framework would enter an entirely new phase.

On the economic front, the LDP’s sweeping victory also brings a high degree of policy predictability. Takaichi does not advocate the traditional fiscal austerity often associated with conservative governments. Instead, she promotes what she calls a “responsible yet proactive fiscal policy,” arguing that amid inflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Japan should avoid premature fiscal tightening and instead use public spending and industrial investment to actively stimulate growth.

During the campaign, Takaichi proposed the temporary suspension of the consumption tax on food, a measure aimed at directly alleviating the cost-of-living burden caused by prolonged inflation. This policy stance reflects an emphasis on “felt economic conditions” and household realities, rather than a narrow focus on fiscal balance sheets alone. Although such proposals still require legislative debate and institutional design, the overall direction of economic governance is already clear.

Financial markets have responded relatively positively. With the LDP securing what is often described as an “absolute stable majority,” the likelihood of abrupt policy reversals in the coming years has been significantly reduced. Investors tend to view this stability as a net positive, and many economists believe that policy continuity will help bolster stock market confidence while providing firms with clearer expectations for medium- to long-term investment planning.

At a deeper strategic level, the new administration’s economic agenda is also intended to confront Japan’s long-standing stagnation following the so-called “lost three decades.” Under the banner of building a “prosperous and strong Japan,” the Takaichi government aims to reshape national competitiveness across everyday livelihoods, industrial structure, and national defense. Against a backdrop of worsening security conditions, the defense industry is increasingly framed as a key engine that can simultaneously support economic growth and strategic autonomy, making it a likely focal point for future investment and restructuring.

Overall, this election represents not merely a decisive victory for the LDP, but the clear beginning of a “Takaichi era” in Japanese politics. Externally, Japan is poised to play a more assertive and consequential role in the Asian security landscape. Internally, it will attempt to break free from the psychological and structural constraints of long-term stagnation through more expansionary policies. This dual transformation is set to have far-reaching implications for both East Asia and Japan’s own future path.