美國與以色列對伊朗發動的大規模軍事打擊，對中國產生深遠且多層面的影響，涵蓋能源安全、外交布局以及地緣政治利益等多個方面。首先，在能源安全層面，中國可說是最直接的受害者。伊朗隨即威脅封鎖連接波斯灣與阿拉伯海的重要航道——荷姆茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz），該海峽承載著全球約20%的石油運輸量。中國作為全球最大的原油進口國，高度依賴該航道的運輸，一旦封鎖，將對其能源供應鏈造成重大衝擊。市場預期油價可能飆升至每桶150美元，這不僅會大幅提高國內能源成本，還可能加劇通膨壓力，同時進一步壓縮海運與空運產業的利潤空間。

在外交與戰略層面，此次軍事衝突亦打亂北京原本的「大交易」布局。中國原計畫藉由與川普政府的會晤推動中美之間的重大協議，以穩定雙邊關係。然而，美伊突如其來的戰爭迫使美國將外交焦點迅速轉向中東，直接影響中國的談判節奏與籌碼。此外，伊朗作為中國在中東的重要戰略夥伴，其政權若因攻擊而崩潰或削弱，中國多年透過「一帶一路」計畫在該地區建立的政經影響力將面臨重大挑戰，區域布局也可能出現系統性空缺。

面對此情勢，中國官方的立場則是呼籲克制與立即停火。外交部及駐聯合國代表公開表示對美以軍事行動感到「震驚」，並強調應尊重各國主權與領土完整。同時，由於地緣政治風險升高，中港股市出現波動，金融法人普遍建議投資者採取保守觀望策略，以減少潛在風險。

此外，此次衝突對其他層面也帶來影響。民航與旅遊方面，前往伊朗及其周邊地區的航班受限，商務及旅遊活動陷入停滯；供應鏈層面，全球供應鏈的不穩定性可能進一步影響中國的出口貿易以及與中東國家的經濟合作計畫。整體而言，美以對伊軍事行動的爆發，使中國在能源、外交、經濟與區域戰略等多方面面臨前所未有的壓力與挑戰。

The large-scale military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran have had profound and multi-faceted effects on China, impacting energy security, diplomatic positioning, and geopolitical interests.

In terms of energy security, China is among the most directly affected. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, which carries about 20% of global oil shipments. As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China relies heavily on this route, and any closure would severely disrupt its energy supply chain. Market expectations suggest that oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel, which would sharply increase domestic energy costs, exacerbate inflationary pressures, and further compress profit margins for China’s shipping and aviation sectors.

From a diplomatic and strategic perspective, the conflict has disrupted Beijing’s original “big deal” plans. China had intended to leverage meetings with the Trump administration to advance major agreements aimed at stabilizing Sino-American relations. However, the sudden outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran forced the United States to shift its diplomatic focus to the Middle East, directly affecting China’s negotiation rhythm and leverage. Moreover, Iran is a key strategic partner for China in the Middle East. If the Iranian regime were to collapse or be significantly weakened due to the attacks, China’s long-standing political and economic influence in the region, established through the Belt and Road Initiative, would face serious challenges, creating potential gaps in its regional positioning.

Officially, China has called for restraint and an immediate ceasefire. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and China’s representatives to the United Nations expressed that the U.S.-Israeli military actions were “shocking” and emphasized the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations. At the same time, heightened geopolitical risks have led to volatility in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets, with financial institutions generally advising investors to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach to mitigate potential risks.

The conflict has also affected other sectors. Civil aviation and tourism have been disrupted, with flights to Iran and surrounding regions affected, leading to a halt in both business and leisure travel. Global supply chain instability may further impact China’s export trade and economic cooperation projects with Middle Eastern countries. Overall, the U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran have placed China under unprecedented pressure and challenges across energy, diplomacy, economic, and regional strategic domains.